China Bubble - how to play it?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by moo, May 15, 2007.

  1. moo


    Millions of new accounts every week... astounding. I think it's obvious this crazy market will still at least double.


    How can a foreigner take part? I know there are some capital account restrictions in China, but is there an easy way around them?
    Do Chinese brokers allow foreign residents to open accounts?
    Can shares be bought on margin?
    How high are the trading costs?

    Thinking about flying there with $5000 in pocket to open an account with 10x leverage... :eek:
  2. I must ask the math behind your theory that "this crazy market will still at least double."
  3. Fishbird



    I am also trying for years now to get into the chinese stock market but it is still not allowed for foreigners to trade there. Daytrading seems to be forbidden to.
    Even handicaped by this they are already second largest market by volume.

    I think this "foreigner-exclusion" is because chinese government first wants to put their cash reserves ( 70% is already in gov. hands ) into their market. By that nice looking charts are created that attract the small retail chinese accounts ( mania already in progress ). When all are invested they open the market for everyone and dump. Kind of insider trading on a new scale.

    But that will only be a dip in the chart like 1929 in the dow. When credit gets popular over there, all hell breaks lose. Chinas grow is for real.

    The best way is to invest into china-surrounding countries. Russia, Hong Kong are an alternative, even Japan will get out of deflation back into inflation because the chinese will soon consume multiple times what they do today. And then compare their savings rate to US or EU to get an idea of what is still to be invested.

    Look at the last century of the Dow to know what happens when credit hits the market.
    I wish all those "wanna be right rather than rich-shorties" good luck. China is at the level where the Dow was in 1925.
  4. moo


    Math? What math? What does math have to do with asset bubbles?
  5. I don't do you predict that it will at least double? There was no math involved? Isn't that like predicting that your computer is really smart so clearly it will just go Golem one day and animate? :D
  6. You're comparing apples to oranges. To say that China has what the US had is ridiculous. Were you joking? :confused:
  7. Thanks for the link bro.
  8. moo


    Ok, I'll give you this math. The target is 10x the previous bottom. SSEC bottomed at 1000 two years ago, so it should climb to 10000. Otherwise it's not much of a bubble!

    Why can't China be compared to the US? US was an emerging power in 1925, like China is now.
  9.'re way out there bro...what do you smoke? So first asset bubbles don't need math, but then you can make up totally random math to figure their potential?

    The US had a different history, philosophy, population, etc. Not to mention the entire world wasn't connected the way it is now...does that make sense? Or am I the crazy one who thinks you can't compare a time when there was no such thing as movies with sound to a time when people watch films on their cell phones?

    Thanks for the're incredible. :D
    #10     May 15, 2007