http://www.bbh.com/fx/quarterlyoutlook/BBH FX Quarterly Q1 2009.pdf Brown Brothers Harriman quarterly outlook. Anybody got any other links for FX research?
Interesting. Itâd be also interesting to see what worldâs Governments consider as real water then.
Long Gold short CHF could be also be a way to play this. A problem is that its hard to tell if gold is headed to a big fall during a deflationary enviroment, I can't make up my mind on gold one way or the other but the chart looks a bit bullish http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=GLD:$XSF&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&i=t39178032851&r=8937 it shouldn't be hard to define the Risk Reward ratios(if gold loses some kind of support after all of these news from fed and treasury it cant possibly go up anymore) I will probably settle with the EUR because of the factors you pointed out. I'm watching the december highs 1.58 of EURCHF. Its about 5% from the current levels, since the EUR is trending down I rather stay out for now. I'm also watching for a new catalyst in terms of a banking news or government announcement coming down and the CHF reacting big, maybe I'm not folling the franc close enough but I'm yet to see a big fall on bad swiss news like it happens almost every week with the GBP
The Swiss Franc (CHF) benefited overnight on the Israel war tensions. The USD/CHF is looking to test the lows from December 18th at 1.0410.
CHF beginning to trade as a risky asset http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/02/20/52722/swiss-struggles/ The EUR/CHF 1.52 level is the immediate resistence, if it breaks it should signal the market is changing its perception on the franc. Swiss franc is a banking currency, it trades at very high PPP premiums due that status, if that goes away where is the floor?