Check The Date!

Discussion in 'Trading' started by stonedinvestor, Dec 20, 2007.

  1. Oh my today is the day!!!! I've been waiting for December 18th for so long I missed it. Yesterday was our low. It's all up from here according to Cycle Theory. How can this stuff be so deadly accurate? I think this is an anomaly this period of corrections and re attempts at break out happens to have landed squarely within the 20 week cycles.... But it's spooky.
    Bear Sterns today clears the decks and the stock goes up on bad news... the end is in site and that's all the market needs....

    Let Loose They Coffers of Frozen Fear! Attack!

    Aruba Networks would be a good buy today if you are just getting back into the swing of things... it's down a lot and starting to go back up WIFI is not going away...

    If you are watching PEIX it's been a monster wait for a retrace here no doubt but slower more cumbersome in the same sector VeraSun VSE is on my shopping list watching it. SYNA :" The Touch " people have been hammered because of competition fears.. investors will convince themselves today that those fears are overblown I'd buy SYNA and I probably will.

    Do You FUSHI? You should FSIN. Buy.
    LAND LAND LAND, if you need income and want capital appreciation too try on TRC & RYN... In defense sector- AVAV... Thinking about even more solar! Maybe CSUN researching it now....

    Now while given up for dead with the Fast Money seeing no rally in site stoney says Ho Ho Ho here we go as promised, our Santa rally.... Forward Ho!!!!!

    * * FAB 5 * *

    1) ARUN-

    2) VSE

    3) SYNA

    4) FSIN

    5) CSUN
  2. From TacticalTrading:

    The 18th is behind us but the cycle doesn't really bottom until the 21st. Wednesday it was clear the lingering negative pressure are not waning as quickly as expected. After the 21st there is a significant momentum peak on the 26th. The Very short-term cycles project a high on Monday the 24th to Wednesday the 26th Total breadth was -421, a very flat reading. Interestingly, total volume contracted substantially on Wednesday, which is usually the busiest day of the week. Directional volume was weighted to the downside. We remain in the midst of an important cycle low. The bulk of our work is indicating higher prices, likely into the end of the year. I am looking for higher prices in to the end of the year.

    ~ si
  3. Wow this is rough folks. This is a professionals market here just a hair late cost you both ways then you chase and you get spanked someone is always around the corner distributing... It has all the makings of a big bull run... I do hope we close hard today. Kind of depressing so far.

    In on small foot in the water SYNA I'm down 50 cents already- 210 shares... I wanted to test this one.. I just bought a large lot of Aruba Net. It's a comeback story not a pretty chart but I want to have three or four outright comebacks in the portfolio because 08' will likely see these stocks go up and the fan faves four horsemen come down.
    I'm in on Fushi I got schooled. I want to buy more now of course but no money left in the till... you want to accumulate this in the $22's folks it doesn't take a genius to tell you that only a greedy stupid pig would pay $23 and change yesterday... the thing is I was NOT BEING greedy the stock was up even more I had a limit order ion all day the stock dove at the close and I was in before I knew what hit me.. Just the slightest sloppiness here folks and you will get your knuckles slapped in this market. i sold ELON and break even to get into aruba just have a good feeling. I made a lot of $ on the stock after the IPO there has been a good deal of distribution which will stop soon.

    From SeekingAlpha*

    One of the main challenges that IT departments face is securing sensitive information while still allowing key employees to have use of network resources outside of the traditional brick and mortar office. Aruba Networks (ARUN) is recognized as one of the leading players in the fragmented enterprise wireless LAN sector holding a 10% plus market share. The company’s products and support help to address the necessity of a mobile and fragmented workforce in an era of vulnerable data and increased need for security.

    Aruba listed its shares in March of this year with an offering price of $11.00. The deal was warmly received by Wall Street which initially bid the price up to 14 (a 27% initial gain). After consolidating at this level for about 2 months, the stock was bid up to as high as 24 before falling under pressure this fall. It appears the majority of the stock weakness is due to the lockup period expiring after the IPO. Currently there are three major venture capital [VC] firms which owned 51% of the outstanding shares. As the shares became available to trade, the VC firms have begun distributing the shares to their limited partners who have in turn likely been selling the stock to realize their gains. While the fundamentals of the company continue to be attractive, the stock itself has traded much lower due to the supply hitting the market. It appears the VC firms still hold about 42% of the shares which could continue to weigh on the stock price, but the level is now very attractive given the earnings power of the company.

    While Aruba has posted negative earnings each year up to this point, The company should earn $0.24 per share in the fiscal year ending July 2008. Analysts have estimated earnings of $0.58 in the year ending July of 2009 which is only 20 months away. This means that the company is trading at a 26 multiple based on next years forward earnings which is a very attractive price for a firm growing sales and earnings at such a robust clip.

    Browsing through the company’s most recent quarterly report, it appears that management has done a good job of diversifying its customer base. The press release noted strength in sales to the Education, Government, and Healthcare sectors, but also noted that no single vertical category accounts for more than 20% of revenue. The company is very proud of its all-star customer list which includes the US Air Force, Microsoft, SAP, Google, Ebay, the Ohio State University and more. Diversification of the customer base will help produce better stability as the company does not have to rely on specific areas of the economy to be strong.

    When the company priced its IPO, it collected $91.8m from the proceeds. Because the company carries no debt, the funds were able to be applied directly to working capital giving the firm access to necessary cash from which to conduct valuable research and development, fund marketing endeavors, and manufacture sufficient inventory to meet customer demands. While Aruba uses several suppliers of components for their hardware, they have a special agreement with Alcatel-Lucent which gives them a level of credibility with CIO’s in large corporations. ARUN uses Flextronics to manufacture most of its finished hardware as this is a more efficient and cost effective arrangement.

    Sounds Yummy doesn't it? This leaves VSE which I've lost money on before and I am certainly not a believer in the whole sector quite yet... however, the price action is telling us something and I do think VSE must be a 2008 pick.

    Next up"A special Edition post: "NEXT YEARS MONSTERS"2008 Kung Fu stock picks... I hope to read a barron's or something first so I have a well rounded lot for you whenever this head calms down for a second.. and we can get some themes going. theme Investing has been tough this year...
    If anyone has a grand idea please put it here for inclusion... I've been thinking about how we can make Elite Trader better and that would be to have a Master List. An approved by the masses Portfolio split among sectors- this might help all of our research. ~ stoney
  4. The best advice I ever heard ----->>>>> Trade what happens!
  5. That's nice- what's the Best Stock for 2008?
    I find that more useful.~si
  6. Stoney I hope you're right. I'm bagholding EMC right now from the $20 range. Would love to see a nice rally after Friday, got those damn LEAP I overpaid for, make me my $ back, lol.
  7. hajimow


    You have the crystal ball. You should tell us what is the best stock for 2008. The best stock for 2008 is the one that drops less that 20%.
  8. Stoney, In the immortal words of Ronald Reagan, "there you go again". This market is going much lower. I know your informed sources at the corner grocery and that guy who drives the taxi cab say otherwise, but it cannot be any more clear to myself.

    I hope this drawing is worth a thousand words...
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  9. It looks like you are flipping him off.
  10. The Cycles Do Not Lie Betray Or overPay!

    Here we go folks. Put on your seat belts & enjoy the ride...~ stoney
    #10     Dec 21, 2007