Very nice! Would you be willing to post some general reasoning as to why you picked those, and the price levels that you were looking for? Thanks. Schaefer
Yes I will post later today as I am at work now. Stops for BUY TO COVER moved down to AMZN = $214.85 and TMO = $50.47 Edit @ 2:37 PM = AMZN Buy to COVER filled at $214.85
Basically what I do is look for trades on the LONG side ONLY when they are in a weekly UPTREND and trades on the SHORT side ONLY when they are in a weekly DOWNTREND. Sounds simple enough right? So then I look at 60 Min charts to help me ID entry and exits based off of EMA crossovers. I use EMA crosses, MACD, MACD histogram, and Stoch, and Volume as my Technical Indicators. Like Dr. Elder describes I have very definite definitions of a "trend". I aslo have areas that MAYBE a trend developing (starting) or it may just be consolidating. When stocks are in this "new trend forming" or consolidation phase there can be a lot of whipsaws. So I use an oscillator as my signal. I think the best Oscillator is some set of EMA crosses on a 60 min chart. I realize that EMA crosses designate a "trend" but think about what happens to the NEXT HIGHER time frame when a "trend" is forming on the shorter time frame. You may have guessed it,....the longer time frame OSCILLATOR will mimic the shorter time frame TREND INDICATOR. Look at a Daily Stoch and see how it mimics the 60 Min EMA crosses pretty well. Now you understand why I said to mostly look at the highest and lowest time frame rather than the timeframe you intend to trade. So there it is in a nutshell. Look for a trend on the weekly chart and then use 60 min for entry and exits. In my opinion TMO and AMZN show a weekly downtrend and had retraced to "value" on the 60 min chart. I then entered as the EMA crossed to the downside on the 60 min chart. With AMZN I got stopped out as the EMA crossed back up toward the end of the day. TMO never showed such a cross on the 60 min chart and so I am still short.
Thank you very much for your explanation. That was pretty concise, and to the point. Sorry about AMZN, but there's always next time. Schaefer
I believe tomorrow will be a decisive day ,...FINALLY. This market has been VERY hard to trade lately. I have been largely in cash but still able to squeeze out ~1.0% gain in the last 2 weeks as the market struggles for direction. So for the last 2-3 weeks I am down about 0.8% or so. I have mutiple trades I will be putting on for the first time in a few weeks as I think the market has turned more bearish and we should have mutiple good entries tomorrow. Of course these COULD be BEAR TRAPS and I will be keeping a close eye on these trades to look for any sharp reversals to the upside. Because I likely will be putting on so many trades tomorrow I will only use 0.8% of capital at risk per trade to help minimize my downside risk. I may add to these positions mid day if they prove correct. I usually do NOT scale into positions except in situations like this. TMO stop BUY TO COVER being left at $50.37. SKF long with STOP price $63.85 & LIMIT price @ $64.39 SMN long with STOP price $18.97 & LIMIT price @ $19.26 ERY long with STOP price $13.27 & LIMIT price @ $13.57 EEV long with STOP price $33.26 & LIMIT price @ $33.26 TWM long with STOP price $43.27 & LIMIT price @ $43.77 I expect ~ 20% upside at a minumum for these trades!! Stops will be placed at the following: SKF stop = $61.94 SMN stop = $18.19 ERY stop = $12.44 EEV stop = $31.41 TWM stop = $41.58 If all of these trades are placed I will have 4% of capital at risk today plus the remaining capital at risk on TMO (~0.4%) trade. Total ~ 4.4%. I may increase this to my max of 6% if these look to be profitable and correct later today. Good Luck
So I made the above post after a long day and falling asleep after dinner. I awoke at 2AM to eval the market. As the futures were down ~1.3% I felt my trades were solid decisions. I go to sleep again and awake to find futures UP 0.5%. I dont know what the hell is going on. I have never seen markets with THIS much movement this quickly. I do not see how someone that is trading can make money holding overnight positions with this amount of movement based on the next headline. SO,...I plan to cancel all my orders that I posted but I may reinstate them after the market opens. Also, my system shows we are obviously in a trading range with no discernible trend so it allows me to trade long and short here with very tight stops. It is possible I go long here in the near future. Going to reamin mostly in cash for a bit longer. TMO stop still @ $50.37.
Stopped out of TMO short. Wild swings this morning. 1.5% swings from high to low so far and only 55 min in trading session. I did buy long position in SLV @ $33.21 with stop at $32.31.