I think UOA has become so widely accessible and used that there’s lot of pump and dump going on, especially with “cheap” options where it doesn’t take a lot of capital to generate a scan hit. It doesn’t mean that one cannot make money, just that it’s not based on detecting what big guys are doing. More like low float momentum trading, imho.
That's absolutely true. Even big shots may fake some action. Watch this very instructive video by Felix Frey: https://optionsgeek.com/podcast-episodes/fake-gamma-squeeze-with-tsla-put-options-dont-be-fooled/
I am subscriber to his service. I originally subscribed because my thinking was that UOA should work even when other things don't. But I can tell you that when market was hot, everything worked for me, day trading, UOA, premium collecting with bullish bias. Easy money all around But now things are not easy on all fronts. Now is good time to see what, if anything, acutally has edge!
I was a subscriber too for a couple of months, then I quitted because I lacked the patience to follow step by step his input. Also, not all his calls were right. However, definitively the guy knows what he is talking about.
If you buy options, I think you should expect may be 30% win rate, but probably less. But your winners should be pretty large. It’s difficult psychologically to trade this way, which was one of the reasons I wanted to join his service. It takes time to gain confidence trading this way, but once you do (I’m not there yet), the payoff can be huge.
One think I didn't have the patience or the timing to do was to follow his recommendation to close the position when it was down more than 40%. So, I often lost all my money. Anyway, now I am following my personal scanner, still with mixed results, but l hope too to keep improving what I get.
You can do much better if you buy them at low IV, usually a few weeks after earnings and when the stock price stabilizes. May even catch them on the first gap up. Win rate is low when you chase options that already went up for several days.
Yeah, I think I painted with a wide brush. I was thinking about UOA specifically. I was thinking catching something that was event based.