Charts that Matter

SPY weekly chart and nothing has changed. Still expect a rally above $400, up to $411. I would give an edge to the rally and then pullback to test the 10/13 low before a new bull market breakout. Therefore, my read of the weekly is rally to $411 over the next 3 to 5 weeks. Then a pullback toward $339. Then the 2021-2022 bear ends, and the 2023-2030 bull begins.

A daily close, and especially a weekly close below the 10/21 daily low would pressure this scenario.

CPI out this Thursday.

 

Individual stock picking has and always will yield superior performance to holding any basket of stocks.

QT vs QE, though. That is a whole area of mystery to me. This Fed clearly doesn't know what they are doing. I'm pretty sure they break the economy and are forced back to massive QE much sooner than the TV financial experts would have us believe. Powell may be the dumbest economist to ever wield such power. And that is saying something, when it comes to dumb economists. Is he even actually an economist?

 

If QT v. QE is a mystery to you, then do not comment upon it. We went through 4 QE waves since the 2008 crash. QE is OVER. It is OVER! There will not be QE for a long long time. This inflation conundrum we are in is going to take years to roll off and be trundled through. QT is the word is the bird is the word until 2025, in my estimation.

 

It's as though ET is your litter box, and you shit in every thread to mark your territory.

 

I am not shitting on every thread here. I am simply calling you out on your folly. You claim that QT v. QE is a mystery to you, but in the very next sentence you proclaim that they will be forced back to QE faster than the TV pundits would lead us to believe. If QE v. QT is a mystery to you, then you are not qualified to comment upon when and how QE may be reinstated.

I am simply interjecting my experience into the conversation, because QE v QT is NOT a mystery to me.

 

"Dunning Krueger is a thing." - @destriero

 

QE is undertaken when rates are near zero.

 

YM Weekly bar. Another leg to the lower trendline would be my preferred path. However, I don't fight the tape, and if YM breaks out, I'll follow. In either way, the Dow implies this bear market is already over, and if not, it will be over within the next 3 months, give or take a month or two.