I'm a equity spread trader, trading cross pairs seems to have many similarities to what i do . Maybe some day in the future i might migrate over if i become too large for my current market. Still in my early early 20's so lots of time to go!
Reference my Aug 27 post suggesting the commencement of a new trade by accumulation of shares Short HOT Long HST when the spread narrows in future days by half the distance at the terminus of the stock plots displayed at closing Aug 27. The chart showed a 6% difference in the spread Aug 27 at closing. Today's close shows a 3% difference. The threshold is now met to begin accumulation. The opening date of this chart is Aug 1. But I entered the trade not at the start of the session on Aug 1, but much later in the session when the spread was more favorable to enter the trade. My tick meter showed at end of session today a significant, remaining spread necessary to narrow in order to get to the start of my original trade. A conservative approach would be to wait before biting. The potential, however, is so good for success that legging in Thursday should today's closing spread hold is reasonable, too; there is a big margin for error for early entry <img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=3611390>
Not sure what your point is here. If foreign holders of Australian debt sell, demand for A$ is reduced. If the RBA buys back its debt as foreign capital withdraws, more $A are created, in which case A$ demand is proportionately smaller relative to supply. Either way, the supply/demand relationship favors a much lower currency when the debt bubble pops.
Is the following not true ? Nations like the U.S. with enormous amounts of its debt being held by sovereigns is at the hurtin' end of a choke leash ? .....Should our creditors' collective judgements be such that risk in holding U.S. debt climbs, it will be require higher yields on U.S. treasuries. The U.S. will be forced to print higher coupon rate I.O.U.'s. John Mauldin and others have stated Japan has long been a flying bug waiting for a windshield. It's saving grace is its debt is being held domestically by its citizens and institutional investors who are reluctant to collapse its own government by demanding higher yields. Not beholding to foreign investors of its debt, Japan escapes the choke potentially put on it as experienced by a number of nations.