JohnnyK, hi. Prescient of you characterize what I do as a simple plan. Thats the thing .. it is simple. Thats not to say it is or was easy .. more than a year of development went into crafting this trading model. Why is it simple? One category: futures. One market only: DOW. Play: day trading only. Doesn't use trends. Isn't based on charts. More simplicity. Opportunity focussed: to exploit a strongly gyrating market offering most money gain and giving usually daily at least one major move .. day lo/hi or day hi/lo Mechanics: delivery of very high probability outcomes. Modeling principle: zero sum game. Purpose: garnering large day on day net points; colorfully put its a 'stairway to the stars' or 'follow the yellow brick road' practical rapid results cumulative capital plan (remember this would not be everyone's choice or probably not most people's choice as to why they do online trading) But, each to his own. Also do what you want to do for your reasons.
"There are zillions of people who use charts in many many ways. I am glad that they do .." Grob109 So am I .. but that is just sheer selfishness on my part. However more seriously, I'm not one of your detractors and indeed I have noted the seemingly enormous amount of time and effort you put into helping those on ET who seek the benefit of your undoubtedly seasoned expertise.
I use and have used TC2000 since 1996. It is the least expensive (<$300/yr), has been awarded Best by Stocks & Commodities mag for many years in a row. Recently upgraded to Version 5.3, which lets you do comparative comparisons of one indicator vs. another. You can write sort formulas and scans to find stocks of your chosen criteria. It has an unlimited number of chart templates that you can build and keep and an endless number of watchlists you can have for reference and use. The company is extremely helpful and supportive. Try it for a month and if you don't like it you get your refund. Check it out: www.tc2000.com hk
The smart money is the line. It is a a one unit MA of YM04m. It serves as a hinged flapper. You will be very surprised at how violently it waves you along. since it leads the cash, it is a terrific pointer. If you double the line width, it will beat you to death. As to the offset range of variation it is about 75% of the offset so it is a screamer too. On friday we were using 20 as a nominal offset. therefore, we calibrated the squeese as a range of negative 2 or better. The stretch was more than 2 or three. Think with me. On the top of the quote sheet I put IDU over YM04M. It is set up for subtraction. with a nominal 20 offset, I am only reading the digit to the left of decimal value. bingo. I can do single digit subtraction by simply memorizing the possibilities and knowing the result. Often I do not bother to shift my glance off the chart since i can "read" the value graphically within one unit. Also i am just looking for shift from "before" to "NOW". That is the Regal test for convergence/divergence. Bingo. I just watch bars extend, their velocity of extension, and pinwheeling values on profits and volume. Williams as you tell me seems to have unfortunately destroyed the signals when he did what he did. Life is funny. I am an old glider pilot, very G conscious. I do what I want with how I monitor pressures and let my fingers resist or force what they touch. If I bank into a 1500 foot per minute up draft at 60 degree angle, I know my wingtip is making a 50 foot spiral as I climb an empire state building each minute right up to where I notice little oxygen and very cool air hitting my face to keep conscious. What we are going to get to here is making money. This is not a cheese level of taking money out of the market. you will be taking 3 to 6 times the trend H/L out per trend four times a day. you will be on a flight where the power you use is the making money pinwheel. Next week you are in for a shock. Everything works like a swiss movement or a 100K glider that weighs 840 pounds soaking wet. You can get to glancing here and there. There are only two things to see: continuation or flaws appearing. To take 13 actions between 9:30 and 12:30 and travel over and over through a range of nine points, all you see is "continuation" mostly. You see flaws occasionally, only. You go to DOM to deal with being on the "right" side of the market. That canonly happen on sides of channels or the flaw called failure to traverse (always on a R to L traverse). All trends have Lto R traverses on declining volume. The R to L is on increasing volume. Boinck you hit the lines at the edges. spike. reverse. Much easier that riding thermals that are unseen. A lot easier than flying for 3 hours picking up thermals on the way. These posts I did are not just aha's. you can count on using them to have a religious experience if you wish. They have one purpose. You will find that as you "see", you get provisional NLP pictures. As you debrief over and over, you get "beliefs". The neat part is this. The beliefs work to improve all trading techniques and methods. All those guys that got sucked into going long on the open, got one more lesson in failure as the day began. They "predicted" and bet on their prediction. Read the thread and group the people into three groups. Read their posts for a year or so and see why they got screwed by their beliefs primarily and not just the methods they couple to those beliefs. All of the myths of the financial industry go back to not knowiung what is going on. The recent Nobel prize is a classic of how wrong beliefs screw people to the wall. Profits relate to "fear" and losses relate to "hope". I post to counter this stuff that permeates the place... It is most easy to see how predicting and betting on it causes "fear". It is most easy to see how being in a trade and staying in causes "hope" right after you get into knowing you are on the wrong side of the trade. These people traditionally sit in drawdowns and hope based upon risk and money management. What a crock. The only job a person has is obeying the market. Just always be on the right side of the market and switch sides when the market tells you to. Continue on the "right side" until a flaw in the market tells you to not continue but instead to switch. Learning how to accept provisional pictures of what is right with respect to the character and temperament of the market is the "process". reinforcing debriefing after the poker game is over, is where the provisional pictures displace the traditional myths and BS. The beliefs are continually iteratively refined.. The major alternative undertaken in ET is repeated failure being reinforced until PNI takes over and dissables the person permenantly. Not a fun prospect. "Knowing how to know" is absolutely necessary. Everyone, all the time needs to go point by point. As you do you "see" stuff (digest it provisionally). when you debrief from practicing gaining experience, you get to have a religious experience. The final assurance is noticing you are getting rich very fast.
"This is not a cheese level of taking money out of the market; you will be taking 3 to 6 times the trend H/L out per trend four times a day." Grob109 No, not a cheese level, no, its 3, 6, 12 times the H/L .. and 4, 8 times.. a day.. why not? You can tell anyone thats pops up on ET and why of course they can just go ahead and do that .. just by being told. Only teasing .
It's good to tease a little here and there. Maybe teasing is so powerful because it allows questions to be raised with little or no stress. The above comment you made is one I really cotton to. What is most hilarious to me, is when I sit with someone who has absolutely no market experience. They have no knowledge at all of anything. They get to see what happens and appraise the situation. The funniest thing of all is when they talk about mutual funds after seeing the DJXX (before eminis, etc...) do it's thing for and hour or so. When I commented about the open and the initial tape that allowed people to make money three times on the same ES price values for up to 9 points, it just has to be as Trend Fader says, "ridiculous". That is a laugh for him no doubt. On the other hand, for those that do this stuff, reading TrendFader's posts is pure humor with a tinge of sadness for the guy. Funniest of all is looking at the fact that there were all those "spikes" for three hours straight. Imagine a person reading my comments and "getting" 2 pairs and spikes on the DOM. He gets it on Palm Sunday. He slips into his set up at 8:20 to watch ES or "do the gap" before open. At open, he just "does it". Say he hits on 10 spikes by 11:00am and then sidelines as the volume drops below 4,500 per 5 min. Well he makes 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6, ticks per spike reversal. Roll a die 10 times and add up the result. 6, 7, 8 points?? If so the H/L is very small for Monday. Think of it as humor. The guy must be in a neat place for the first time in his life. It is a funny situation for sure. and he still has to go through the same thing for the afternoon. All of the above by.....just being told. ........as you write. It is not like doing the monkey thing on typewriters since there is a theme of making money by a mechanical thing that could be done with software. But if ET had an active membership, there might be several people who could "just do it" as the Nike expression goes.
Hi Jack, Ok. The futures line does indeed appear to lead the cash bars. I understand that you do some quick math on a quote sheet but lean toward watching the screen, calibrating by eye the spread /direction of cash NOW as compared to BEFORE (previous bar(s)). It is subtle, to the tune of +/- 2. Subtle is my word. To you it appears as an obvious type of âhinged flapperâ/screamer that could beat the hell out of someone and leave them for dead . I think I saw that in Aliens. Until I start calling up the comparison, I think this description is apt enough. I will next start drilling down on the DOM signals. It looked like DOM played a vernier (if not large) role in your decision to take profits at the bottom of bar 5 friday. Is QCharts your source of DOM and "smart money" comparison? PRV [pro-rated-volume] seems pretty straight foreward. For example, if you are at half the volume of the previous bar (5 min bar) in the first minute (of the current bar), you would probably want to be biased in the direction of price movement at that time, right? I may drill down on that more after DOM. I am a glider-pilot-to-be. Thatâs like a wanna-be pilot only better. I have a provisional belief/picture that a 500 pound Lockheed-Martin propeller type pinwheel attached to my 840 pound glider would be better since there is actually nothing between you and the ground. But maybe you had another pinwheel in mind. I am at the macaroni and cheese level on the way to spaghetti and meatballs with AHA sauce (followed by cheesecake for desert). I hope to grasp all this by Palm Sunday and fear to get it by Halloween. Looking foreward to next weeks synopsis/narrative. JohnnyK P.S. -- What is PNI? Is that where if you don't know what it means you probably are one? And what about this pinwheel?
Hi Jack, I am emphasizing some of your info on DOM, 2 pair and spikes, as part of drilling down on that concept. I have semi-edited the info for emphasis and perhaps (maybe not) readability. Placing these two quotes side by side like this makes it jump out at me, and hopefully others. The second is from the bottom of your SCT synopsis document. It appears to me that the term "spike" needs expansion/clarification, since it may be confused with Pro Rata Volume. Thanks, JohnnyK