Charting Housing Prices

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by jackstone54, Apr 17, 2008.

  1. I downloaded some Excel spreadsheets from the census and played around with them a bit. These are just rough drafts but prove that housing can be charted. I wonder what the ET technical experts can do with this spreadsheet and this chart. Give me a minute while I upload all my charts and the excel spreadsheets.

    Tell me your opinion and lets see what you can draw. I made these drawings with Excel, Snag-It on a pen-tab computer....very rough, but its clear whats happening...
  2. New building permits annual line chart
  3. New Permits chart monthly line chart
  4. Average median price (not average, median price)
  5. "....very rough, but its clear whats happening..."

    What's clear? Market is about to up or market is about to go down?

    Just wondering what you are seeing.
  6. This is great Jack. A 40 year chart is tough to read though, just looks like one big bull. Would it be hard to break it down to smaller time frames. 10yr, 5yr, 3yr charts would be just awesome.
  7. Now, as a gag, here is the Broadcomm chart from the tech bubble. Notice how the price of Broadcomm is bumping up a similiar trend line similiar to the housing price chart. Then suddenly, the price gets lifted way above the trend line. We all know what happened after BRCM got to 180....

    Now if a similiar situation were to happen to housing, the price wouldnt come down in just a few months but many years. Where do you think the price for housing will go?

    I suspect that the price might go to one of the trend lines and may just go through the trend line like Broadcomm.

    I know it sounds implausible that housing might go to a price such as 133k (mid-90s), but I believe its a probability considering no one thought that Broadcomm would be a 4 dollar stock in a matter of several months from 180....
  8. Here is the average (not median) prices since 1990. By the way, you can find all this data on google by typing in average housing price census excel. I believe that will bring you some hits to the government website. Excel has a charting tool built in.
  9. Average prices since 1995
  10. It appears that price was riding up a certain trend line from 1970 to 1986. Price then jumped to a new trend line that was steeper then the original. Around 2000 price then jumped to an even steeper trend line.

    Price is now bumping up and down. This chart appears to be a BARF or Bump and Run Formation. Another saying for this might be a "blow off top" where price made its grand finale towards the later part in the chart.

    Its clear to me that price will most probably make it back to the old trend line from either the 90s or the 80s. There is a chance it might even violate that trend line.

    However, there is a chance that this is just a consolidation until it breaks even higher.

    #10     Apr 17, 2008