Well, my advice regarding this is twofold. First, take a look through TMTA's recent financial statements, the company is expected to post a loss for Q4. The real downside/upside potential will take place when the company provides guidance for Fiscal 2006. Second, I feel that 2006 is all about profitability for TMTA. This year is going to be very key for them, as they are still midway through their turnaround. If you ask many people about TMTA, the first thing they would likely say is that it was a high flying "dot com" stock, that the company has "never made any money", and that the company generally sucks. I suspect that TMTA has been flying under the proverbial radar for quite a few months now. I can't give you a good answer about earnings growth, really need to see guidance from the company first, but EPS for Q2 was $0.04 and EPS for Q3 was $0.05, EPS for Q4 should be negative.
I think the only reason why Q4 earnings will be negative is due to the extended time it is taking to close the culturecom deal. Granted this is a lump payment but it still would have had a material effect on their earnings for Q4. Should be interesting. I still think they need another 2 or 3 company/fab's in order to really have LT growth potential.
I'm actually really wondering about the status of the Culturecom deal. Last I had heard, the potential closing deadline was extended again until the end of January. $15 million is a lot of money for TMTA, even if it is a one-time event (plus ongoing royalties).
TMTA just had a nice breakout today (January 19), will be interesting to watch for confirmation tomorrow. I'm in around $1.40 (yes, I'm breaking my usual rule of posting about a trade when I enter it rather than proclaiming that I entered the trade previous to a move).
Thought People reading this thread might find this interesting. NEC Unveils Audio Processor For Mobile Phones â Cormac @ 17:34 NEC Electronics reported about creating a new ultra energy-saving audio processor that enables up to 50-hour music playback on a mobile phone. NEC muPD99910 co-processor contains an audio codec, DSP and a Secure Digital controller with CPRM (content protection for recordable media) support. Chips are sampling for $13.15 each, with volume shipments scheduled to April. Courtesy of: http://www.digit-life.com/news.html?05/39/02
Closed my TMTA position today pretty much net even with my entry point (not counting commissions). I could regret doing so, but take a look at the channel on my chart, and my guess is that it starts moving downwards again from here.
Transmeta held their year-end conference call February 23, their turnaround continues. I actually took on a pretty high risk position at $1.40 or so during the day of Feb 23 (yes, I know, holding into earnings can really be a gamble). I'm not quite sure what to make of the current chart pattern - the stock gapped up February 24, but there was a lot of selling pressure. My best guess is that it might move upwards a bit over the next few days, but I'm not sure that this is a strong upwards break (see attached chart). P.S. All of this Microsoft "Origami" speculation is starting to look interesting. I'm thinking that Microsoft liked the OQO, and is working with Transmeta to develop an Efficeon-powered ultra-portable (like the OQO, except the OQO uses the Crusoe). This could very well be the proprietary (secret) project that Transmeta has been working on for Microsoft. I found the following link of a Yahoo stock forum of all places, but it appears to be legit (it's a video): http://www.d-kitchen.com/launch_center.htm Enter, click "work", click "BrandTheatre", select Microsoft Origami. I suppose it's a possibility that this device could use a ultra low power Intel CPU (almost sounds like an oxymoron doesn't it? hehe) or an AMD Geode.
TMTA was fairly flat until about 2:00 p.m. EST today, then it cranked on a whole lot of volume and ran up in a big way.