I think if the federal reserve did raise rates sometime in the next few months that the markets would take this as a positive because they would believe the federal reserve is trying to cool inflation and prop the dollar higher, I think this could be a positive for the market.
Fresh money will come in later today and tomorrow and the Fed is doing another one of its $75B auctions today. Despite the horrible news and oil's advance the market has been able to hold its levels and no panic has set in. Dumb money looking for a bounce has been shaken out a few times and now we will have a small bounce to let the hopeless optimists (suckers) all get back in long in hopes of some summer rally and then we go down again.
There's SO MUCH money on the sidelines. You can't get a decent return anywhere on your money. T Bill buyers are getting incinerated. There are some sectors and specific stocks so irrationally oversold, it's silly (look at United Health). Any rally could be a big mofo here, especially if oil breaks - in fact, if oil breaks, you may see a 10% rally on all the indexes, with some sectors rallying 30% or more.
That they haven't replaced the 3-4 most underperforming companies with high flying ones? The point here is that charts like this is pointless because the components change over time...
even if oil pulled back to 100-107,and we did rally we are still in an economic hotseat,100 oil is still expensive