Funny, it took reps 6 years to blow up and the dems 6 months. Truly the party of village idiots. Charlie Cook, one of the best political handicappers in the business, sent out a special update to Cook Political Report subscribers Thursday that should send shivers down Democratic spines. Reviewing recent polling and the 2010 election landscape, Cook can envision a scenario in which Democratic House losses could exceed 20 seats. "These data confirm anecdotal evidence, and our own view, that the situation this summer has slipped completely out of control for President Obama and Congressional Democrats. Today, The Cook Political Reportâs Congressional election model, based on individual races, is pointing toward a net Democratic loss of between six and 12 seats, but our sense, factoring in macro-political dynamics is that this is far too low," he wrote. "Many veteran Congressional election watchers, including Democratic ones, report an eerie sense of déjà vu, with a consensus forming that the chances of Democratic losses going higher than 20 seats is just as good as the chances of Democratic losses going lower than 20 seats." Cook scrupulously avoided any mention that Democratic control of the House is in jeopardy but, noting a new Gallup poll showing Congressâ job disapproval at 70 percent among independents, concluded that the post-recess environment could feel considerably different than when Congress left in August. "We believe it would be a mistake to underestimate the impact that this mood will have on Members of Congress of both parties when they return to Washington in September, if it persists through the end of the Congressional recess."
Provided the republicans get their act together, which they have failed miserably to do so far. Remember, these are the people who were nervous about defending Rush, who think Glenn Beck should tone it down, who can't stop backstabbing Palin, who supported the Bush/Obama bailout for Wall Street and the UAW and who gave 17 or so votes to confirm sotomayor. Republicans should make this a national election and run every race, not against the democrat in that district, but against Pelosi and Frank. They are hated outside the radical lib and gay movements. It would be tricky, but they might also want to run on getting out of afghanistan and make obama and the democrats defend what by then will be a very unpopular deployment. That might not win too many votes, but it will demoralize democrat voters and suppress their turnout. It wouldn't hurt, assuming obamacare hasn't passed, to come up with five or six very simple health care reforms and run on them. Ideas like allowing insurers to compete nationally instead of limiting them to state by state regulation.
Intrade is a better political handicapper,If fact most regard them as the best Intrade has Obama a 2 -1 favorite for re election(bet 33 to win 66),90-10 for a Senate democratic majority in 2010 and 75 -25 in the house
Because people like you respond to it.You try to aggressively downplay it because you know its the truth but you don't want to accept it and you don't want me to post it any more.Fact is you know that intrade is extremely accurate and it really hurts you guys the Dem's will be in power for quite awhile.If you Repubs want to post odds then I will post odds from the best political odds maker in the game,deal with it
I see no significant sign of this yet. Don't forget the conservative unhappiness with the republicans goes back to Bush `41 and Read My Lips, and Gingrich and the Contract with America (good idea, terrible implementation). Bush `43 only made them (us?) more miserable. It's not like the GOP recently ran off the rails - it's been a problem for two decades. OTOH, McCain has suddenly turned into a conservative again, voting with the party and even voting against sotomayor! Who woulda thunk? So maybe he sees the writing on the wall and knows that a cleansing is coming and he wants to stay in. Or maybe he thinks he has to do this to keep his seat, I dunno. But there are not many signs yet. We'll see. I'm not holding my breath.
Obviously the price fluctuates but Obama has always been the favorite for re election for the life of the contract
You act like intrade has predicted the last 100 years worth of elections. The damn thing was founded in 2001!