Chaos - A Nonlinear Approach

Discussion in 'Trading' started by rlb21079, Sep 20, 2003.

  1. Do you find/look for similiar patterns on varying timeframes for confirmation of a signal? This would include but not be limited to, similiar support/resistance, classic setups (e.g. head and shoulders), and/or indicator readings.
     
    #41     Sep 22, 2003
  2. You are right there in the ball park. It turns out to be different though. Soon we will have exhausted all the wrong answers.

    You, on the other hand, are getting to the right questions
     
    #42     Sep 22, 2003
  3. Another source of noise! :mad: :D
     
    #43     Sep 22, 2003
  4. Sorry Typo error first line should be

    "If a < 1 x will tend towards 0: it is the attraction point" and not
    "If a = 0 x will tend towards 0: it is the attraction point"

    As for the term attraction point it refers to the limit of points in a
    diagram where you draw a curve NOT in function of time but of "himself" for example for the logistic equation
    x[n+1]=a*x[n]+b

    you will draw x[n+1] in vertical axis and x[n] in x axis. This diagram is called phase diagram. When n (time) grows the value of x[n] on this diagram will tend like a spiral towards a single point called attractor because of this visual effect - and also because one can say that it is the long term behavior of the system: whatever the initial value of x all trajectory will end at the attractor point - but depending on the parameter a it can also oscillate between two points or even more - that is to say the system leave a stable state (one attractor) for another "stable" state (two attractors) although it will oscillate it will do so regularly with a certain periodicity (for example here the periodicity will be 2 for 2 attractors that is to say you will have to iterate twice in time for x to be at the same value again). Still all these points are called attractors because they represent stable points. The critical value of a that make the system switch from one atractor to 2 attractors and generally from n attractors to more attractors is called bifurcation point (which is 3 for the first bifurcation of the logistic equation). At each new bifurcation the periodicity will double. Since these points depend on the parameter a you can draw another diagram of all x solutions in function of a to visualise all bifurcations - so the name of this diagram is the bifurcation diagram. In the logistic case the diagram will show a doubling of periodicity as a grows until a tends toward a certain fixed value (that is called accumulation point and is equal to 3.57 for logistic equation) so that the system will still oscillate regularly between stable states but above that accumulation point the periodicity is lost and appears erratic whereas it is generated by a deterministic system: this is the so called chaotic region that is say chaos - in the sense of chaos theory - is not randomness it is apparent randomness.

    As for application of attractors, well I don't know for others because nobody at my knowledge has exposed a true working deterministic model for stock market except me and my charts are full of these attractors (and also reppelors since there 3 kinds of such limit points in chaos theory: attractors, reppelors - a point the system moves away from - and saddle points - both attractors and repellors) :D. Nevertheless there is no need to have a doctorate in math or being an expert in chaos theory in fact on my homepage I only mentionned once and in parenthesis that my points are attractors in chaos theory (Yeah I know it would be more sexy if I publicize in big titles on chaos theory on my site but I hate doing marketing hypes - except just for fun when I need to enerve some people :D. Either people come to my site because they see some real practical interests for trading stuff - and not come because it is sexy because it is artificial intelligence or chaos theory - or they can go elsewhere where chaos theory is more used as marketing stuff than concrete stuff hee hee ).

     
    #44     Sep 23, 2003
  5. #45     Sep 23, 2003
  6. You want to know why you can't extract information knowledge from that "noise" ? Here's a clue from an interview of Nassim Taleb :

    http://www.derivativesstrategy.com/magazine/archive/1997/1296qa.asp

    "I left Wall Street for the first time in 1991. I was obsessed with price formation. I couldn't understand from the screen how prices were determined."

    THAT IS TO SAY YOU CAN OBSERVE AND MAKE ALL STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF PRICE THAT YOU WANT YOU WILL ONLY SEE SHADOWS OF REALITY BECAUSE AS MATHEMATICIAN AND SCIENTIST HENRI POINCARRE SAID IT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE CENTURY IN HIS MAJOR WRITING "HYPOTHESIS IN SCIENCE" IT IS IMAGINATION AND INDUCTION OF HUMAN WHICH CAN LEAD TO A NEW THEORY AND NOT ONLY FACTS AND SYLOGISM - IF SO ANY STUPID CRAY WITH A NEURAL NET WOULD CREATE A NEW THEORY EVERY DAY HAHAHAHA !

    I have discovered my theory not because I am a genious in Chaos Theory but because I have some imagination and induction/deduction capability (I think that some of you even think that I have too much imagination in many things hee hee !)
     
    #46     Sep 23, 2003