While I agree with your "Thank you for your efforts!", I have to say that your noble plan mentioned above is flawed. There is no doubt, never was, that you can teach PVT or SCT to a fifth grader. You can even teach to a four year old that money is made going from RTL to LTL. Easy. Now try something else: Give all your archives with Jack's posts and tell the fifth grader to trade according to what he/she read. Good luck! Your plan will work because you will be helping the fifth grader, translating Jack's words into the words and world of a fifth grader. You will guide him, correct his/her mistakes, give hints, answer questions, etc. With your plan you will only prove two things: a) You understand Jack's method and b) You are able to teach, transfer this to anybody else. Nothing else. But anyway, feel free to teach your kids. Maybe they can teach me one day.
I do bar-by-bar monitoring and analysis. So I just keep track for each bar. To begin to do monitoring and analysis like when there is a rollover on a contract, I do a "restart". I pick an arbitrary turning point and do not know much about what is going on except that a c turn (dominant to opposite dominant) has occurred. As I come to the next turn (a possible a or c turn), I keep logging the forwarding of the trend in volume using volume as the independent variable. I get an End Effect in volume. All my End Effects are named. Thus, I check a lookup table that has all the c turns listed for this type trend (The type trend must be a Set A type trend, so I only look in that set of panels). If it is there, then I have re-established 100% certainty in my method. And it is true that another c turn has occurred. I take profits and know with 100% certainty that the sentiment has changed. The present named End Effect must appear in the "n" event column. The table has two columns (n-1 and n event columns). If the End Effect is not there in the look up table, then I know with 100% certainty that the sentiment has not changed and I continue to build profits in the present trend. I also log the turn as an "a turn". The definition of an "a turn" is a turn from dominant to non-dominant. As time has past, I have built a series of trading methods. fortunately I have always been able to use an existing method as the basis for a new more precise and more powerful method. Veteran traders, like myself, usually quit when they build so much wealth. In my case, I kept giving profits away and didn't do the usual. But now I am doing MAT trading which streamlines spreading profits around. Actually, I do not have personal accounts I trade anymore. What I have done is stay active and keep iteratively refining things. At this point there are no more facets to refine. All the parts are defined mathematically and all the parts fit together completely. I use 5 integrated sets of Orders of Events. They fit into lookup tables. FF requested that I post all of them so I did. Once you do a "restart" for a given market turning point vis a vis sentiment, everything stays synchronized from that point on. Monday begins the Z quarter of ES. So our trading room will do a restart on Monday and move forward from there. The participants are interchangable at this point (30 days into their training) so we just divide up the monitoring and analysis and each day unfolds bar-by-bar. The third type of turn is the "b turn" which is defined as a non-dominant to dominant turn. Channels are constructed from "normal trends". In terms of the independent variable a point 1 of a channel corresponds to a "c turn". To go across the diagonal of the Darvas box, it takes two more turns (a then b) and finally the end of the channel is another c turn. Recently, Al Brooks espoused using bar-by-bar to monitor and analyze the market. Nodoji has explained thoroughly how she uses the monitoring and analysis she does. There you see how reliable patterns can be used to make a very good living. For myself, I spent a lifetime trading over 56 years. My trading became an implicit affair; I just traded by looking unconsciously and doing the segments. Others suggested that I make it all explicit. So I did. In modern times, the CW lost track of the finite nature of the markets. What Darvas did implicitly (if you cannot read the details of what he wrote) was trade using finite math unconsciously. He did not have to deal with fear, anxiety and anger as you read about all the time in CW current trading.
Toolazy... don't be TooDumb! Even if you don't understand immediately what Jack is talking about make sure to at least archive his posts before some crazy moderator or admin deletes them. His posts are like pieces of a big complex puzzle. You don't know and don't see immediately how and where they fit. But with every post you read things become clearer. This last one was a nice example where he releases another nugget, another piece of the puzzle. Thanks Jack! Being lazy is not a big problem. Usually in order to be lazy you first have to be clever because you need to find ways how you can be lazy while everybody else is busy. So if you are clever lazy guy, interested in learning more about Jack's methods then here is what you can do: 1. Read more of Jack's posts. 2. Learn to extract the nuggets from his posts. Some things he writes are important for your understanding of his method, some is him talking about his life(experiences), some is him bitching around, some is him making fun of people, some is... have (still) no clue! -------------------------------------------------------- Next level: 3. Ask some specific questions about his methods, what you read. Remember he is pretty old so hurry up! -------------------------------------------------------- Next Level: 4. Actually do some work. Post some charts. Try his MADA routine. Ask more questions. Create a glossary of the terms he uses. --------------------------------------------------------- Next Level: 5. Do more work. Start to refine what you learned. Know what you know and know what must come next and why, at all times. --------------------------------------------------------- 6. Find a fifth grader... preferably from the Montessori school... and transfer what you know and mentor that poor soul. Oh! I forgot... Next level... make a lot of money and use some of it to solve some local problems! P.S. In case you ask yourself where I am... I am still somewhere between level 1, 2, 3 and/or 4 because I'm too lazy.
Jack, thanks a lot for the answer. Never thought of that option. hi FF. you seem to be up to date. Do you have link to 5 orders of events you asked JH to post ? Also, do you have link to this : Recently, Al Brooks espoused using bar-by-bar to monitor and analyze the market. Nodoji has explained thoroughly how she uses the monitoring and analysis she does. Btw, I do follow JH for years but more on high level. Try to understand his concepts and accommodate in my view of the world if they pass test of time.
I have it somewhere but could only find this quickly: Order of events: 1. OOE of the OOE's 2. OOE of the primary 3. OOE of the secondary 4. OOE of the bands 5. OOE of the volume test procedure I don't follow Nodoji or Al Brooks so I don't have that.
Jack, one more question if you do not mind about how did you derive mapping table : Presume you knew about market sequences before you explicitly written down rules as you can process them subsecond. Did you take reasonably large sample of situations for each mapping item and then try to explain it by price/volume combination only? To do that, you had to create 5 groups, one for each OOE and this covers now all angles?
I know I spell Johari wrongly and I also spell Mondrian wrongly; these are just tracking devices. Mapping the "c" turns onto the Modrian Table was a mathematical deduction exercise. By just using 8 panels I could state the "differentiating" characteristic of turns where the dominant changed. A turn where there is a dominant change defines the event where extreme amounts of money is made. At maximum shares of stock (100,000 for me) I have done a turn that netted 17 points per share in the 28 dollar per share exit range. (11 dollar inital cost per share range). The Modrian table has a skeleton or framework. I combined two derived premises to build it. 1. I included each type of trend as Sets A through D. 2. separately, I included routine turns of the system AND the failsafe instrument system for preventing any losses. Crossing 4 with 2 yields 8 panels. This is an invincable and powerful protective device. Next I applied the OOE principle to achieve "knowing that I know" in advance as NOW is monitored and analyzed. I believe "anticipation" is the best tool for instilling the replacements for the CW based emotions of fear, anxiety and anger. Here you see the use of n-1 and n columns in each trend type. you also see within the trend type the n-1 and n of the turns in that type of trend. Because a trend ends with a "c" turn for all types of trends, you deduce the four types of trends: 1. c to c, 2. c to a to c, 3 the normal trend: C to a to b to c, and 4. the drift trend: c to (a to b) to (a to b) to c. By putting an n-1 column in the map, it is possible to achieve a form of differentiation by having a kind of "context". Lo, Brandt and Aronson ommitted context in their work so the work failed. In effect, I spread out c turns over the types of trends and I also rigidly set in place a context for differentiating types of c turns. What is true about End Effects is that any End Effect can play any role, i.e., any turn type. So I set up the table and then I filled in the table's ingredients. In trading, it is possible to make each experience purposeful. I did that informally. As a consequence I began to make money in my account from the beginning of setting it up. I ploughed 50% of my income into the account as well. By 40 days into the learning process I had been making money the second half of that time period. Before that I was just learning purposefully. I never had to try to erase anything I learned. I began with channel trading at a time when a person had to pencil his own charts. I had to ink the blank master chart as well. This meant I had to deal with each and every detail. I knew each time when I made a mistake since I did so much work. You never make any mistakes when you pencil your own graphs and annotate the channels. This is a description of working on SEQUENCES. I got formal feedback. My broker was telling me about his other clients who were coattail trading me. then he told me about other brokers who were coatailing with their clients. So my money making was enhanced by others "pushing " my trades. My trading breakthrough came,for me, when I got lazy with volume. I stopped drawing bars and just did significant figures in the boxes. As did Darvas, we both discovered an oder of magnitude change in volume caused price to be affected. So voila, I had it made for the rest of my life. Later I made the work of Dodd and Granville explicit in paradigm theory. Because of a lot of things, I was recognized globally as a problem solver. This cutting edge work, kept me sharp and on point in many ways. I may have grown what became recognized as a gift. I also trekked in the wilderness and lived off the land from desert to tundra. I learned to function medically in formal trauma and in very remote areas under very difficult situations in which I found others. My samples are excessive by statisticians standards. I keep binders in two forms: chronologically and contextually. Every piece of the market's system of operating is named. In science back checking is done in a deductive process. As science builds its (or a field) field, it begins with the most evidence and takes the evidence apart. Then all the pieces are used to build the whole from a foundation. I ask others to repeat this process. Usualy a person will not take out a sheet of paper and draw a single piece. Society and culture make this impossible today. Non US traders still have this ability, however. I have built a heirarchy from the elements of the market. granularity afforded me this opportunity. 10 price pieces exist. 11 volume pieces exist. I began in 1957 and RDBMS were first created in 1970 0r thereabouts. So I had a good headstart. Relativity applies to the market system. BUT counterintuitively all trends must be monitored and analyzed independenetly of each other. The great fork in the road occurred and Bayesian stuff took control and makes markets so simple to BEAT by NOT using any of that stuff. Science has to be used instead. So I use the Scientific Method. the market dictates that Boolean algebra be used. Granularity of variables makes all the few pieces easy to differentiate. Thus, a relative database management system appears. By finding the smallest parts you begin to differentiate with meaning and you produce definitions. Price change is how money is made. So the pieces are assembled with one mission: making money systemically. fortunately data can be used in clusters. The best type is not used presently but it will be in 5 to 10 years. I group parcels by time period AND by profile. The OTR profile is best for carving extreme profits. As a compromise, I use 5 minute bars. I operate in the 10 to 100 millisecond range so I have plenty of time compared to the data yield of a 5 minute bar. My sample in use currently covers 81 bars a day for several years. The data is formalized into the pieces and combinations of the pieces have names. A spectrum results. All of the pieces and their combinations are found in seven sheets. The Modrian Table shows the reversal turns in an n-1, n context. As expected, it is a simple finite list. To trade, a person goes from general to specific. this scientific set of shells leads to knowing that you know in a total context all of the time. In the systemic operation of the market there are no flaws, no anomalies and no noise. If an observer is seeing these things, then he is still on a path that has not been completed as yet.