I constantly hear about how the markets are changing. I especially hear much about how the markets are extremely difficult to trade as of late. Granted, I'm only interested in swing trading, so I'm naive at best, but how are the markets really different? I can see how scalping would become more difficult, as it's dependent on spreads which change with technology. In fact, I can see how extremely short term trading can change because profits that tiny are easily affected by small changes in technology and regulation. And I can also see how day trading systems that exploit statistical irregularities stop working. But what about trends? Won't markets always trend? Won't there always be overbought and oversold levels in trends that can serve as entry and exit points? If one sticks to swing trend trading, how can you go wrong? The way I see it, as long as there's a market, any market, there will always be trends. Maybe the strong trends will be in commodities as opposed to equities, currencies, etc. But there's always a trend somewhere, no? So to those more knowledgeable and experienced than myself, how have the markets really changed? They went straight up during the bubble and since then have gone straight down. What is so difficult about making money in either circumstance? Market conditions pre-bubble simply seem to be the inverse of what they are now. Am I being presumptuous to think that swing trend trading is inherently superior because it's based on a solid simple idea, trends? Or am I on to something, and day trading, scalping, etc. are fleeting phenomena that will inevitably fade away, forcing traders to constantly adapt or die?
This guy, theeeman, would entirely agree with you. His trading system (below) is purely based on swing trading : http://www.stockhits.com/site/id62.html