Yea, I really meant to put Trump with a question ? There were other things happening at the same time besides Trump state of the nation speech, like the 10 year yield spiking up, Greenspan's bubble comments, and the Fed set to raise interest 2-3 times this year. Not sure how to label it yet.
And earnings season. It was pretty disappointing. Lots of people overlooking this one. While the bearishness started market-wide on 1/31 (or even 1/25, you could argue), there were three huge earnings drops between market hours on 2/1-2/2. While the last bulls were getting shaken out from the earnings season, AAPL released and lowered guidance, and CVX and XOM missed. On their own not hugely significant. But taken together, I consider those three releases to be where bulls rolled over. It also gives us good cause for continued bullishness--now market value is more in line with earnings-based valuations trends. (and reading back to you other post for context, came across someone quoting my post from Thursday) Haha...what a difference 1 day can make--if anyone caught the buying frenzy in my journal yesterday. Thursday night I knew we had a big day coming up so I spent hours going over charts and devising a plan for Friday. Ended up finessing my target up a bit from 2500 to 2525 (which was only about 4.4% from the 2640-ish when I made that post). Knew the bottom when I saw it though.
There is a good chance we will enter a bear market or some variations thereof. I'm a short term intraday to swing trader. I'm not so good with long term predictions. Nor anyone out there. But if I were to sit back and theorize a bit, I think this could be a long-term top. It has the look of a classic blowoff top. It doesn't mean it will crash on Monday or anything. But volatility is here to stay. There will be more days with a 1000pts+ drops and rises. I wouldn't be surprised with a 5000 pts drop one day in the future. And a 3000 pts rise someday in the future. It's because we are at such elevated levels. Percentages is what people should be looking at not just Dow index points. We have gone straight up since 2009. Geez. There has to be some corrections. Some people will want to take money off the table. In 20 years, yes, the market will be higher than they are now. Markets always go up in any 20 years window timeframe. Assuming the world doesn't blow by then. hehe. If I were a long term investors, then I would say the next few years can be flat to downish... But I only trade what I see intraday. None of this long-term matters to me. I guess in my 401k it matters. But I sold out my equity funds in Nov 2017 already and parked in short term safe bonds. I'll buy back equities in my 401K when things seem to bottom out... Again, who knows. No one knows. Just trade and go with the flow is the best suggestion.
next to zero I would say, unless a full-on dump of Federal dollars into an economy near full employment is "different this time." On the other hand, a dampened, more subdued equities market for the next few quarters, would be perfectly in order. The cynic in me makes me want to think that won't happen with a Mid-term coming up.
%% Looks like GE, downtrend, except it has been going down more , longer + stronger down . Tech stuff like QQQ... nice uptrend again/200 dma . NOT a prediction