Chances we are going into a full-blown bear market?

Discussion in 'Stocks' started by Saltynuts, Feb 8, 2018.

  1. "If this bottom/reversal happens around 1pm EST, I just might make another 5K today"


    Hahaha, I think you kinda-sorta called it lawrence!
     
    #11     Feb 8, 2018

  2. Thanks beerntrading. I suspect you are right that more downside to come. Hope you are wrong! :) But that doesn't sound illogical!!!
     
    #12     Feb 8, 2018
  3. I should say, I'm really bad at reading indexes or ETFs. Though usually pretty good when individual stock patterns are mirrored in the index itself.
     
    #13     Feb 8, 2018
  4. luisHK

    luisHK

    All the ETers bitching about lack of volatility those last few years must be happy at last.
    Do you actually manage to make money in those conditions ?
     
    #14     Feb 8, 2018
    trader99 and beerntrading like this.
  5. IKR....and they all blowout on XIV because they thought it was never coming back. o_O

    ....and then they have no money left to play the volatility.
     
    #15     Feb 8, 2018
    cole_ likes this.
  6. ElCubano

    ElCubano

    Wait until 3 or 4 funds blow up and everyone on CNBC is tapping out then back up the truck . 2-3 years from now. That's a Hail Mary prediction lol.
     
    #16     Feb 8, 2018
    murray t turtle and KevinD like this.
  7. SteveM

    SteveM

    In my opinion, the good news for bulls is that the market is probably going to be excited to see what next quarter's earnings look like with all the new corporate tax rates, and stocks could drift higher as those earnings approach.

    The bad news is that stocks seem to be in a no-win situation - good economic data that would normally drive stocks higher, will now also be driving US-debt yields higher. This will be seen as a net-negative for equities, and stocks will be sold down until the market gets a feel for how well corporate America can handle 3-4% rates rather than 2-3% rates. The "bad news is good news because lower rates for longer" low-volatility narrative that we have gorged on since 2008 is dying a quick death here.

    The problem is the paradigm shift - Central Banks that have been loosening for the last 10 years have now shifted into tightening. There is no way around it. The market needs to find out if stocks like Amazon are really worth 300X earnings in a 5% cost of capital vs. the 2% cost-of-capital world, that they have enjoyed for the last decade - I suspect we will find that these high-flying stocks aren't worth that much. If so, many of them have a long way to fall.
     
    #17     Feb 8, 2018
  8. It's possible the US stock market is turning bearish for the next 3-9 months. I doubt it's turning bearish for the next 12 months, you just can't make that assertion based on current technicals. We'll have a better idea at the end of this month.
     
    #18     Feb 8, 2018
    piezoe likes this.
  9. SteveM, thanks very insightful. lovethetrade, thanks as well, please do update us one way or another what you think when we have a better idea at the end of the month.

    Dang, down over 4% on the DOW. Brutal.
     
    #19     Feb 8, 2018
  10. I spoke too soon, and broke my own trading rule...of thinking/Assuming...I'm smarter and know more than the market. :confused:
    That I know the future.
    Today, like alot of days, is basically...The Trend is your Friend.

    I should have waited, and whethered out the temporary upwards mini-storms.
    Those were relatively meaningless, small, vibrations/gyrations/tremors...and not the real thing trend.

    It's kind of amazing, how in hindsight, how crystal clear...and evident things are.
    If only you would have held your nerve, and remained calm. And stop overthinking and assuming.

    This is basically the same chart as yesterday. A fakeout recovery/finish upwards trend...then boom, it stayed and remained downwards.

    I'm not complaining either way, that my crystal ball is semi-broken...I still finished the day with a pocket full of cash.
    It's ok to be wrong on your initial judgement calls...so long as you're open-minded enough...to realize it, and still bank profits.

    The key...is to realize the key inflection points....from the meaningless gyrations.
    Change your perspective from a human on the ground...to a bird,...to a plane....to a spaceship...,to an extraterrestrial, -- and things will become very clear,
    2018
     
    Last edited: Feb 8, 2018
    #20     Feb 8, 2018