I've been thinking of this as a (rather large) correction in an over-extended rally. But what are the chances we are going into a really long (months, years) bear market? Thanks.
Nobody knows. But of greater interest, what would be your game-plan if this is the start of a years-long bear?
I generally agree, No one has a crystal ball...don't even try to predict the future, because that's essentially just gambling. Sometimes it pays off to have the gutsy, ballsy foresight gamble...but more often then not it will just hurt you overall. Basically, react to the market...trade what you see -- and the loose, general trend... is your friend. Don't overthink some things, some times. Don't think you know more than the market. Because the market...is part art, part science. and Miss Market is a bitchy, semi-unpredictable one too. or can be. But more importantly, I made $5,000 today...High-Five` (cue the inspirational, happy, successful instrumental melody) Hoo-wah! If this bottom/reversal happens around 1pm EST, I just might make another 5K today Making those G's all day, everyday...and my Trading Academy will show you how to. with Real money this time, no more paper trading. I want a $2000 espresso machine, and $2000 alligator boots, and a $2000 laptop and $2000 headphones. -- i'm tired of living cheaply.
As a citizen, I like it when markets are going up as it generally means the economy is doing well and people are building equity. As a trader, I could care less and just want to look for longs when it's going up and shorts when it's going down. As a day trader, I get both long and short signals most days.
Well, I don't have much of a prediction, but I've been bearish since last Thursday. Hanging on to my winning puts and shorts with a target of their MA200 (which actually lines up nicely with SPX MA200). Looking for another 5-6% decline before next Friday. Will cry uncle if we breach the dead cat highs. Longer term, I'm still bullish, and next week will hopefully present some buying opportunities. Will bail quick if we breach MA200 with conviction. But I'll be buying as we round (what I think is) the bottom.