Discussion in 'Trading' started by shortie, Nov 17, 2008.
will we break support this year?
i think we're gonna hit 1000-1100 before year end. i dont think the fear factor is there yet and there's enough volatility to take the market up to 1100 after hedge fund redemptions finish up
Breaking 7,800 on the Dow with high volume will cause panic. I think it happens if GM announces bankruptcy.
we are due for another 10% rally. They seem to happen every two weeks. The gains should hold the third time.
SUPPORT WILL BE BROKEN, S&P will break new lows and probably be trading below 800, if GM goes bankrupt or the bill isnt passed for the auto industry expect a drop below 700 on the s&p.
Right now the range is around 500 or so point swings. It's a wide range. We will definitly test the 8000 mark again but to blast through it, not so sure.
Auto manufactures are not being bailed out this year and the market has yet (Today's a new day) to push through support on that news. The market knows and may want GM to file for Bankruptcy. It could mean a restructure, end to Union Contracts and a positive move in the right direction. The other big 2 could follow. So, while it will be painful in the early stages, the bankruptcy could benefit the company and economy in the long run.
Another factor, smart money is out of the market and they are not trying to pick the bottom. Smart money is named that way for a reason. Myself, I rather wait till a bottom is confirmed, even if I miss the first 10% run up on solid volume. Why try and jump into this market when you have manipulation, Marxist President, and the "Collective Good" looking for hand outs.
IMHO, Market is going to eventual trade in a real tight narrow range near what ever lows it sets in. Volititliy will die after we become an OBAMA NATION in Jan.
If we test again , market will go further down . There is no such thing as smart money in that sense, with regards to indexes.
interesting day! for a moment i thought that it was all over for the support but it held.
still needs ~8%. probably won't happen before Xmas.
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