here is an old poll (~ 7 months back(?)). have any of you changed your opinion and, if yes, why? Chances Obama To Be Re-Elected? This poll is closed. 0% 3 10.34% 20% 3 10.34% 40% 10 34.48% 60% 2 6.90% 80% 6 20.69% 100% 5 17.24% Total: 29 votes 100%
I put 60%. I'd guess between 60 and 70, at this point. Of course it's nearly impossible to have a meaningful hypothesis without knowing who the GOP candidate.
the simple fact that there is no obvious GOP candidate at this stage makes me wonder about GOP prospects.
Markets Jump on Word of a Manufacturing Rebound By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS Published: July 1, 2011 A report that United States factories rebounded in June prolonged a rally in the stock market Friday, giving the Dow Jones industrial average a gain of more than 600 points for the week, its biggest point gain since the bull market began in March 2009. the improving economy (if for real) will be a huge problem for GOP
I'll play devil's advocate and suggest that it's beneficial to the GOP to not get stuck in the debate too early. The populace is restless and the best strategy might be a full court press at the last minute, after this economy continues to suffer. Remember, the majority of the population could give two shits where the stock market is. Instead, they are dealing with chronic joblessness, inflationary food prices, high gas prices and declining real estate values. Those far outweigh the $5-$10k they have in some 401-k plan. You also have to remember that Obama carried that "youth" vote along with alot of "independents" who simply voted "Anti-Bush" in 2008. In 2012, I'd put good money on many "independents" simply voting "Anti-Obama". Whatever the odds are now, the staggering number of financial landmines between now and Nov 2012 make this anything but a "sure thing".
There will be plenty of anti-Obama votes out there in 2012. That is at least known. IMO the election will be very close.