Challenge: Real or Random?

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by jmcgraw, Dec 3, 2002.

  1. jmcgraw

    jmcgraw

    I really like the idea of obscure bar times on intraday charts... Even better if the data is a year or two old. I guess the best approach would be to mix all these ideas together and not just use one.

    .
     
    #41     Dec 4, 2002
  2. dottom

    dottom

    And depending on the time frame you choose, you would most likely be merging today's close and the next day's open into one bar which would definitely make it difficult for someone to recognize or reverse engineer the chats. (Besides, I think most people don't have enough time to waste trying this.)

    I recommend using at least 60m bars or higher to preserve the TA characteristics in the real charts. There is a lot more noise in the lower time frames, and also if you will be merging the close and tomorrow's open in one bar you want a longer time frame so the effect of the overnight gap is minimal.
     
    #42     Dec 4, 2002
  3. Glitch

    Glitch

    Where's the volume?? Volume often gives cues that make it much easier to distinguish real charts versus random.

    Without volume my guess would be:

    Random
    Random
    Real
    Real
    Real
    Random
    Random
    Real
    Random
    Random
     
    #43     Dec 4, 2002
  4. I agree that volume would make it easier to tell.
     
    #44     Dec 4, 2002
  5. dottom

    dottom

    I think it's a valid exercise without volume.

    Besides, I think volume would be easy to "fake" by varying it to some degree similar to the price change magnitude. e.g. large range days and gap moves would see higher volume, just like in "real" charts.

    Also, you could create a synthetic instrument where the resulting chart would be "real" but there would be no volume characteristics.
     
    #45     Dec 4, 2002
  6. daytr8r

    daytr8r

    7 years experience:

    real
    random
    real
    real
    random
    random
    real
    random
    random
    real
     
    #46     Dec 4, 2002
  7. jmcgraw

    jmcgraw

    Just an update. I will be posting the answers to the challenge on Monday.

    So if anyone else wants to participate, you have a couple more days:

    http://users.rcn.com/jmcgraw/



    .
     
    #47     Dec 6, 2002
  8. jmcgraw

    jmcgraw

  9. not sure what you're referring to with your link JMgraw.
    It doesn't like answers to me ;)
     
    #49     Dec 10, 2002
  10. jmcgraw

    jmcgraw

    #50     Dec 10, 2002