Challenge: Real or Random?

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by jmcgraw, Dec 3, 2002.

  1. jmcgraw

    jmcgraw

    No trickery, I promise. :)


    .
     
    #21     Dec 3, 2002
  2. JPB

    JPB

    1. real
    2. random
    3. real
    4. real
    5. real
    6. random
    7. random
    8. real
    9. real
    10. random

    -JPB

    trading: 3 years part time/1+ year full time
    guessed just by looking at formations/candles
     
    #22     Dec 3, 2002
  3. Just by observing the answers given by previous posters, it is a fair bet to say that a random answer will produce just as good a result ;)
     
    #23     Dec 3, 2002
  4. hmm, there we have marketsurfer.. obviously, the dude's been thru the school of hard knocks. now that i think about it, i cant think of one successful trader I know who hasn't been thru that school. so take the knocks in stride and keep your eyes on the graduation:)
     
    #24     Dec 4, 2002
  5. GreenTea

    GreenTea

    6 months of solid experience studying the markets.

    Using plain old intuition to assess the charts.

    1. Random
    2. Real
    3. Real
    4. Random
    5. Real
    6. Random
    7. Real
    8. Random
    9. Real
    10. Random

    Thanks for interesting exercise.
     
    #25     Dec 4, 2002
  6. inquiring minds want to know


    just subscribing to thread
     
    #26     Dec 4, 2002
  7. dottom

    dottom

    Random: 1, 3, 5, 6
    Real: 2, 4, 7, 8, 9, 10

    Method: Digital Signal Processing to determine persistence (periods that tend to trend) vs. ergodic (periods that tend to mean revert) vs. random.

    I'd be interested in repeating this exercise with a true random walk representation. This would be equivalent to the "drunkard's walk".
     
    #27     Dec 4, 2002
  8. alain

    alain

    1. random
    2. random
    3. real
    4. random
    5. real
    6. random
    7. random
    8. real
    9. real
    10. random

    visual interpretation

    6 years experience in TA
     
    #28     Dec 4, 2002
  9. TSaimoto

    TSaimoto Guest

    Just from flipping through all the charts (2 seconds per chart?)

    All REAL.

    They all looked real.

    My experience? 6 years
     
    #29     Dec 4, 2002
  10. Quiet1

    Quiet1

    1. Random
    2. Random
    3. Real
    4. Real
    5. Real
    6. Random
    7. Random
    8. Real
    9. Real
    10. Random

    4 years experience looking at charts
     
    #30     Dec 4, 2002