Challenge: Real or Random?

I think you are "close enough" for this exercise. For your reference, here is a quickie on brownian movement.

  http://davis.wpi.edu/~matt/courses/fractals/brownian.html

Do a search on Google with this query string:
  +"brownian motion" +"random walk"

And you'll get lots of references. I like this 3D graph here, which represents probability on the Z-axis. This URL talkes about options pricing and how the stdev is expected mean diviation of value, but I really like the chart:

  http://finance.wat.ch/cbt/Options/00003720.htm

 

I've been trading and studying charts for 5 years and I won't even hazard a guess. Maybe if I could take the data and put it into my charting program and really look closely. But just glancing through them...it's tough.

gs

 

I have posted raw data as well as candlestick charts to the website... So go ahead and check it out:

http://users.rcn.com/jmcgraw/index.htm


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c5.txt gives me http 404 not found.

I'll go ahead and run my quickie analysis method and see what results we get.

 

I fixed the problem. Please try again.

 

just for fun..

1) random
2) random
3) real
4) real
5) real
6) random
7) random
8) random
9) real
10) random

method: just looking at them
experience: about 3-4 years

 

In that case I will say:

1) real
2) real
3) random
4) random
5) random
6) real
7) real
8) real
9) random
10) real

Experience: only about 2-3 years, but enough to know to fade GG.

 

lol

i think i guessed pretty good, though! we'll see!

 

Can you zoom in the charts... they are difficult to examine bar by bar or candle by candle.


--MIKE

 

Go here:

http://users.rcn.com/jmcgraw/

Click on "Raw Data", and then download the tab-deliminated text files. You can then load the data right into your charting program and zoom in and out all you like.