Background I have written a little program in Excel that creates charts in accordance with specified volatility settings (I adjust these to simulate stocks with different trading characteristics) but with a 50/50 probability of either opening up or down on any given day. (The close price is a random draw between the high and the low of the days prices) So the trends and patterns are random. (Well at least pseudo random, since computers cannot create truly random numbers. But as far as I can tell the data does not trend in any specified direction nor are there any common patterns... In fact at a glance they look pretty much like your average stock chart) So, to summarize. The volatility is random within specified boundaries, and the price change is random within specified boundaries. No one claims that trading activity is 100% random, everyone concedes that boundaries exist most of the time. However the question is whether the price movements are themselves random or predictable within those boundaries. (I hold the belief that they are somewhat predictable) The Contest As I said, I do believe there is predictability. So I would like to pose a challenge to all the traders on this board. I have set up a website (Donât worry, there is absolutely no commercial content, I am NOT trying to sell anything!) where you will find 10 stock charts some of which are random, and some of which are real historic charts. Each chart covers about one year's trading, and they are all daily bar charts. I am curious (and I am sure it will be interesting for everyone here as well) to see how well anyone who is willing to participate can separate the phonies from the real thing. So here are the guidelines: Rules 1. Visit the following website, where you will find the 10 charts: http://users.rcn.com/jmcgraw/index.htm 2. Reply to this message with your assessment of which charts are random and which are real. 3. Specify what methods you used to make your decisions. (Intuition, traditional TA, Elliott wave, etc) 4. Specify how many years of trading experience and/or studying the markets you have. 5. Since some of the charts are real, it may be that if you are an older trader you could recognize them. (I have only included charts that are over 8 years old) If this is the case, please do not reveal your certainty until the answers have been revealed. -- I will reveal the answers in about a week, or whenever I stop getting replies. I will then post the scores in raw form, as well as broken down according to trading experience and analysis methods. I hope this will prove to be interesting.