http://countrywide-foreclosures.blogspot.com/ Compare what these are being sold for and zillow estimates to get a sense of how much worse things are in reality than the estimates from zillow might seem to indicate. Inventory is rising. Looks like CFC didn't convince too many new buyers at RJ conf today. Kind of hard to get others to hold the bag on hot air when the insiders are still dumping shares. CEO dumped another 70K at $35 the other day. $140M worth in 14 months.
Yes, but I do believe that there are accumulaters with deep pockets buying it on dips right now...I'd be careful. It seems clear that they might be on the outside portion of those getting hurt in the downturn with the loans. Some have even stated they will prosper because they will get more business as other companies reel from the aftermath. You might get one, maybe two more dips but it's likely to stabilize it seems.
Brings to mind the deep pockets who were buying NEW between 15-20 in the last few weeks. Now I am not saying that CFC is another New but I am saying that with rising short term rates and subprime origination gone and insurance on everything increased their margins and loans are going to shrink, plus they are going to get hit with foreclosures, not as bad as some but still enough to hurt their earnings significantly more than is being factored in to the stock right now. I am looking for about $20-25, then again I ws looking for $17 on New and boy was I wrong about that, left at least $14 on the table. If you recall Enron was getting some major dip buying before it cratered. By the way, no one averages losers like big mutual funds do, often all the way down. Big money is not always smart money.
Big money is definitely not always smart money, you are correct. But weathering a storm can be done and Countrywide has been escaping the bad media these other companies have been getting and even getting some positive p.s.'s in my book. I think NEW and CFC are vastly different. Enron is a copout...I'm done.
The point about Enron was that big money was still buying it even when the smart money was clearing out (just giving another exmaple to back up the point that I was making in that post), not that CFC is another Enron, I have said quite clearly that I don't even think it is another NEW, that is obvious to all I would imagine. What I am simply saying is that the risk to its positions is not being factored in properly and its weaker earning prospects are not being discounted adequately. I am not looking for it to go to $3 like New, more like $20-25.
Buying the underlying against a put position on pre open gaps and selling a few hours in to the trading day has worked well on CFC so far but I think that game may be up. Not buying it today. Good luck all.
Yes...I was wrong...CFC is a sketchy position to be long in. CEO is a dog and a half...the amount of selling that little piggy has done will land him under the watchful eye of the SEC no doubt....that news alone will hurt the price of the stock...even if the company isn't in trouble.
CEO going to be on CNBC today 3:15 EST...of course I don't expect he'll be expected to explain while he dumped all of his shares while the company was buying back shares on the open market. Really disgusting how blatant of a scam this guy pulled off thus far...he needs to get nailed for it.
Anyone else catch this interview? It was disgusting...CEO said people are overreacting even though he dumped all of his shares, $150 Million worth recently. There is something very wrong seeming about his actions.