CF Industries Holdings

Discussion in 'Stocks' started by kxvid, Sep 4, 2008.

  1. kxvid


    This is a fertilizer stock with a p/e of less than 12. Some might compare this stock to a potash mining companies like MOS, POT, IPI. However its not comparable. The heart of the aforementioned companies are their mine reserves. CF Industries synthesizes their fertilizers from various precursors, in addition to having various mining operations. The company is even looking into extracting 900,000lbs of uranium annually which is a byproduct of phosphate production for additional profit. Anyway this stock is a BUY. Good time to get in on the pullback.
    click on investor relations lots of good info there
  2. you are trying to convince yourself that the stock should rebound strongly. if you paid attention to technicals you would not be in this mess and married to CF. Had you bailed when it broke through significant technical levels i doubt you would be so possitive on the stock. Listen,i have been there many times in the past so i know what its like and i am not trying to be a wise ass. you need to concentrate on price action,there is a reason why this stock is in the toilet. stronger dollar,hedgefunds selling momo stocks,and perhaps the market see's lower earnings for fertilizer stocks next year which could make that p/e actually much higher.
  3. kxvid


    Why don't you suggest a better stock ny_hood? This stock might not be a google circa 2004, but what is these days anyway? Honestly, just about everything is down today, if you want to make money you need to focus on the longer term.

    I looked across my stocks today, and out of the 120+ stocks im watching only a few are up today. These being SKF, SOLF, UNG and DBA. DBA is an agricultural etf, which actually managed to rise today despite all the pressures on commodity prices you keep hearing about. Non-agricultural commodities declined today, which is good for a company like cf. I wouldn't read to much into one day, but what we are seeing might be the beginning of a larger trend. I'm guessing food prices will remain high, atleast relative to other commodities.

    Oh one last word. Dollar rally what a joke. True, the dollar has strengthened relative to a few crosses short term, with the exception of the yen. The currencies the dollar has strengthened against may have been overvalued, like the euro. This does not take away the fact the printing presses in the US are running at mach 10. The fed can print money but it can't print food.

    I could write a book on how poor the dollar outlook is believe me. The fact of the matter is the US is insolvent. SS and Medicare entitlements are 53 trillion dollars. The only way to pay for them is to devalue the dollar. We all know the CPI which Social Security is indexed for vastly under reports inflation. You will get your social security check but it won't buy anything. Oh and peak oil...
  4. its even worse today as it broke through its 200 dma on high volume. look,if you keep investing like this you are going to get killed and i don't want to see that happen to you. i don't know what to tell its down so much and could go down much further. i would have bailed a long time ago. i will NOT recommend a stock only for daytrades as i do from time to me if you like.
  5. kxvid


    Good I hope this stock keeps tanking. I haven't bought any yet, cuz I figured we might have more days like today. If this stock keeps dropping like this, I'll be celebrating. This is a damaged stock not a damaged company.
  6. listen to what NY hood says. He knows his S#it.

    This is a nasty bear market with thousands of funds shooting each other caught in wrong sided trades. The fundamentals do not matter right now.

    The market ALWAYS wounds the majority of participants and right now they are the short dollar long commodities short financials players.
  7. Fo' sho. He's da man.
  8. if CF lowers guidence or demand wanes,CF will be an expensive stock at these levels and sell off much more regardless of the decline it had thus far.
    CSCO was a great company but went from 85 to 8. different biz and different p/e's but the theme is the same.the market is usually right.

    "cnbc broadcasts what wall street says but the market tells us what the market is really thinking !"
    a great quote from the NY_HOOD
  9. Funny you mention Cisco. POT's chart looks EXACTLY like Cisco's in 2000.
  10. Currencies are not companies. This is the fallacy most make. The fed can lower the rate at which banks lend to one another, but that does not mean that banks will lend to consumers and businesses. That' why its called a credit crunch: the free market is doing what the feds failed to do. If the crash hadn't happened in Aug 07 then we'd be in real trouble and the EUR/USD would be at 3.0.

    Remember, these are the relative valuation of currencies. We are not talking about the dept of a company.

    EUR/USD at parity in a few years.
    #10     Sep 5, 2008