Let's be honest. If the Fed is stopping QE, and, I think we can all agree due to the shitstorm about to erupt on SCOTUS confirmation, no stimulus will be coming before election, there is pretty much nothing holding this market up. You got the UK about to lockdown for Coronavirus. Not much to stimulate consumer confidence. A drop this close to election wont affect anything like if it had occurred months ago and stayed battered down all of these months. Pretty much ripe for a big correction below 3,000 after the 5 month rally from March slaughter. Probably drop around the 3,000 mark and waver till presidential outcome. Even that could fluctuate with mail in mess that is sure to prolong results. Markets aren't a fan of confusion, and between the stuff mentioned above, the coming riots everyone has come to expect, and the uncertainty of everything happening at once, I think a correction down is coming. Just my 2 cents...
S&P hit a “correction” level (10%) almost to the penny (and then ripped for two straight hours into the close)
Nice analysis Bugsy, but trying to "rationalize" the market does not work in the long run, for the simple reason that the market is anything but rational (even though the big invisible hands behind its move know perfectly well where it is headed...)
True, but if we only traded on certainties then we'd never trade at all. All I can do is try to bounce TA with price action and current events for a best probability play. As long as I have a solid stop and risk tolerance I'll come out ahead more often than not.