CCL - Options Into Earnings

Discussion in 'Trading' started by livevol_ophir, Mar 16, 2010.

  1. livevol_ophir

    livevol_ophir ET Sponsor

    Details, trads, charts, skews, options here:

    CCL is trading 36.94. Note earnings are due out near the end of March (April Options cycle).

    The company has traded over 21,000 options in the first hour on total daily average option volume of just 5,335. All but 71 contracts have been puts. The largest trade has been a Apr 37/35 put spread sold (sell 37 puts) on a ratio slightly more than 1:1 (more sales). The Stats Tab and Day's biggest trades snapshots are included (in the article).

    The Options Tab (in the article) illustrates that the puts are mostly opening (compare OI to trade size). You can also see that Apr vol is about the same as the other months even though earnings are in that cycle (a vol event).

    Selling the put spread (if done without stock) is a bullish position. When done in a ratio of more high strike puts to low trike, it's more bullish. The Skew Tab snapshot (in the article) illustrates the pronounced vol smirk - selling more options than buying makes sense ceteris paribus. Also, if stock moves up on earnings, vol should (could) come down on both factors.

    Finally, the Charts Tab (6 months) is in the article. The top portion is the stock price, the bottom is the vol (IV30&#8482 - red vs HV20&#8482 - blue). The yellow shaded area at the very bottom is the IV30&#8482 vs. the HV20&#8482 vol difference.

    You can see a recent stock run up (though it may be turning) on the top. On the bottom you can see the IV30&#8482 (red line) moving past the HV20&#8482 (blue line).

    Ultimately, from a purely academic standpoint, selling more options and getting long makes sense given the chart and skew. I do however think it's possible that vol rises even more pre-earnings.

    This is trade analysis, not a recommendation.

    Details, trads, charts, skews, options here: