Cattle: Time to Short?

Discussion in 'Ag Futures' started by BlueHorseshoe, Nov 15, 2003.

  1. Keep coming across these articles on the exploding market for Beef - looks like a strong candidate for a short position. After all, I would bet the cowboys in Texas and Australia, lured by $$$, will find a way to breed and raise more head to take advantage of the bonanza.

    Can anyone recommend resources for learning more about the beef markets?

    http://www.nytimes.com/2003/11/16/national/16BEEF.html
     
  2. JayS

    JayS

  3. DK_

    DK_

    I'm surprised there's no mention of the Canadian mad cow fiasco in that article. With only young cattle being imported from Canada currently - supply is artificially low at least to some degree.
     
  4. Pabst

    Pabst

    No pun intended, but demand is literally eating up supply. Bottom line: commodities were underpriced for too many years. Yea there's short term shorting opportunities but the big money is in buying dips in grains, softs and meats.
     
  5. Third paragraph brief mention: "mad cow disease in Canada."

    This article was written for the masses anyway, not for traders.
     
  6. Why waste so many words - just say 'Buy.'

    If you have demand statistics bring 'em on. Everything else is just conversation.
     
  7. DK_

    DK_




    I was refering to the second article, didn't read the first one. I hate registering for news sites.
     
  8. Well ... it seems if the gub'ment is going to prognosticate tight beef markets for the next two years it might be time to fade? I would think there are many substitutes for beef following a price rise. Perhaps market participants need to rediscover this truism.

    Beef - it's whats for dinner.

    Record High Beef Prices Here to Stay-USDA
    Tue Nov 18,12:44 PM ET Add U.S. National - Reuters to My Yahoo!

    WASHINGTON (Reuters) - American consumers shouldn't expect a break anytime soon from record high prices for prime rib, T-bone steaks and other beef products as U.S. supplies will remain tight for the next two years, the Agriculture Department said on Tuesday.

    Strong consumer demand, a drought in the Plains region and a case of mad cow disease in Canada have created a perfect storm for U.S. cattle prices, which have skyrocketed above $100 per hundred pounds. Last year, cattle prices hovered around $60.

    http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/nm/20031118/us_nm/food_beef_usda_dc_3
     
  9. LCZ3 to test 86.00 soon.
    Buy the rumor/Sell the fact!

    I started my trading career in Live Cattle Futures boyz so trust me when I say it will be difficult to trade off news.
     
  10. Short cattle? Who said that??
     
    #10     Dec 24, 2003