Cattle play for Year 04

This will be my second Cattle spread. This time its a bearish spread, June 04. Currently Cattle is in a range for the forward months and June 04 are in the middle of that range. This is not a seasonal spread. This is a bearish spread to try and capture the fall out of the 1st Mad Cow found in the US.

The spread was put on today before the cattle Market closed. Washington State CDC released the news of the findings early this morning.

Do not follow this play based on my moves. I have no idea if it will work and I do belive historically Cattle rises in the spring and summer.

 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A20056-2003Dec21.html

look like buy on dip situation.

 

I don't know much about this, but I would think a short in corn, and long in hogs would be prudent

 

Hi ER,

Did you buy Feb 04 and short June 04. BTW the price of cattle falls seasonally heading into the summer months. Good Luck


Backwardation.

 

CME CATTLE FUTURES SEEN DOWN DAILY LIMIT FOR DAYS AFTER MAD COW FOUND-ANALYSTS

 

Sold 5 dozens of oxen June 04. Look forward to 100 dozens of cows in Dec 04.

 

just heard on fox news japan will ban us beef imports if proven mad cow disease. japan is our biggest beef customer. this could get bad.

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid={FDF255DC-3701-4AA4-993F-A48E48A5A48A}&siteid=mktw

Japan bans imports of U.S. beef
S.Korea takes similar step in reaction to mad cow case
By Allen Wan, CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 8:49 PM ET Dec. 23, 2003







TOKYO (CBS.MW) -- Japan, one of America's biggest beef buyers, has decided to ban imports of U.S. beef following a confirmed case of mad cow disease in Washington state, an official from Japan's agriculture ministry said Wednesday.

 

I wouldn't be surprised to see Feeders and LC locked limited for a few days.

 

You called my spread perfect. Im not to big, but not to small. If this plays out, as i just heard about the JAPAN pulling out of our Beef export....this could be my best play ever.

As far as buy on the DIP. Sure, go for it. IMHO, I think the US gov. is lying out there arse, 1 known BSE cow. You will see, as time goes buy we will find out that BSE was in more than one cow in Washington and that the Beef did make it to selfs.

Hell, they still dont know how one contracts BSE. However, the risk is slim to none. But the FEAR that could set in, if even for a short period could cause a spike down in Cattle.

Longer term effect, well, depends on how many other countries jump aboard Japans move.

Also, soon the Homeland Defense Team will investigate to make sure that there was no contamination of our cattle. This will be done in a hush hush mannor as a precautionary measure, at it will be leaked to the mainstream press causing more FEAR.

 

5 months after Alberta confirmed having bovine spongiform encepthalopathy on May 20th, 2003 . . . cattle futures were at a RECORD HIGH since a U.S. ban on Canadian beef starved supplies while demand held.

May not happen this time around with the USDA version of the Labor Department's Elaine Chao, Agriculture Secretary Ann Veneman lying her freaking ass off with the most "absurd" spin that I have ever heard.