Cattle Crunch

also doesn't account for the fact most farmers lose, they just lose

 

EMG, have you ever made a live call?

 

:eek:

 

I think that is why I put the in the original post. If it was close to $100 at the time, doesn't that seem like a nice opportunity?

There are lots of variables when feeding catte, such as MF Global stealing your hedging profits and other things. A paper crush, is just a paper crush.

 

According to a USDA report, only about 2% of ranchers use the futures market to offset risk.

 

They deal with enough crooks such as packing companies, so no need to deal with the crooks at the CME.

 

Margins can't go much lower, right?

 

Markets can remain irrational a lot longer then one thinks.

Think about the June Live Cattle vs May Feeders. The spread looked way out of line 10 bucks ago in the Fall.

 

that sounds like the famous John Maynard Keynes (who went broke) quote

"Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent."

 

I haven't heard that comment before, but sounds about the same.