Cathie Wood Says $1M Bitcoin (Again); Why She Might Be Right

Discussion in 'Crypto Assets' started by The_Krakenite, Dec 15, 2022.

  1. To be honest, at the rapid inflation... 1 Million is a pretty easy target to achieve :)

    And let's say that the Fed somehow... manages to pull a miracle and get everything controlled and back down to 2% (yes, we can laugh about that, but just suppose). Well then, we will be truly fucked, because now you set the precedence that politicians and central banks can recklessly print and fuck over the economy, but it is all ok people, because... see.. we survived it last time!
     
    #11     Dec 16, 2022
  2. Pekelo

    Pekelo

    Oh, Cathie, never ever change. She also bought 749,205 shares of Coindesk on the day of its IPO, down 90%.

    If I were religious like her, I would be losing faith by now...(since Jesus is helping her making decisions)
     
    #12     Dec 16, 2022
  3. Her friend Bill Hwang was also deeply religious. Both of them attended church. Guess God lost faith in him after letting Archegos implode.
     
    #13     Dec 16, 2022
  4. RedDuke

    RedDuke

    remove fake money aka stable coins and tokens, it might come here fast.
     
    #14     Dec 16, 2022
  5. SBF spent his last billions in a failed attempt to de-peg Tether. Unfortunately (or fortunately?) Tether self-repaired and confidence held. 24-hours later SBF filed Chapter 11.
     
    #15     Dec 16, 2022
  6. "Why she might be right?" How about "Why she might be insane?" Less of a leap.
     
    #16     Dec 16, 2022
  7. I don't think most people consider the scale of the situation.

    20m Bitcoin x 1m each is 2e13 dollars or 20 trillion dollars.

    That's roughly the size of the entire us GDP.

    You would have that much money tied up in a non productive asset. People would have to sell productive assets at a discount to buy Bitcoin on the basis that they think it's going to 10m.

    It's easy to get from 1 to 10 or 10 to 100. Eventually you hit a market cap where macroeconomic issues come into play.

    Things like that have happened before but they didn't end well. (Mississippi company)
     
    #17     Dec 16, 2022
    Pekelo and Frederick Foresight like this.
  8. johnarb

    johnarb

    TAM

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    #18     Dec 16, 2022
  9. Pekelo

    Pekelo

    It is kinda interesting to toy with the idea of the theoretical limit of crypto. It has to do more with mining and less with how many millionaires are on Earth. If the reward is high enough everyone and their mother will mine coins. etc.etc. I may look into it, but until then just keep in mind, the ATH has already been reached and will never be surpassed again.

    There was a reddit thread about this same topic with a lot of real bad assumption about market caps. This post is relevant though:

    "You can’t talk about theoretical maximum for Bitcoin without talking about energy expenditure. Currently Bitcoin network is consuming as much as Argentina, or 0.5% of the world energy. If you hope that the price will go 10x, then Bitcoin would use something like 5% of the world energy. US is consuming about 20% of the world electricity. So Bitcoin increasing 40x in price would get us there. Obviously this can’t go on for ever and at some point we will have a strong reaction from media and politicians against absurd usage of energy for almost no social usage. Especially when other technologies like Ethereum will have moved to proof of stake and consume then significantly less energy while offering much more socially valuable use cases and scalability."

    Another good point:

    "Interesting nobody's considered transaction costs in this analysis. If Bitcoin hits $1,000,000. each, a Satoshi will be equal to a penny. Not a big deal, except the fastest and cheapest transaction fee is currently 102 satoshis/byte. For the median transaction size of 224 bytes, this results in a fee of 22,848 satoshis.

    Thus, the average transaction will cost you $228.48. To get a transaction fee of 3% (say what Visa might charge) you couldn't buy anything less than $7600.

    Sure, prices could drop, but can't really get below 1 satoshi/byte giving you a mininum cost per transaction of $2.24. Now you need to be spending at least $75 to get a transaction fee below 3%."

    TL;DR: Bitcoin at 1 MM is unusable as currency.
     
    Last edited: Dec 16, 2022
    #19     Dec 16, 2022
  10. This is what no crypto enthusiast considers.

     
    #20     Dec 16, 2022