Tail Alert: UGP: Buy Stop 22.87 OTO sell stop 21.73 GTC; 170 shares for 2% initial R. Buy signal = B wave breakout per Jeffrey Kennedy method. Additional clues: Momentum divergence, narrow range bollinger band breakout with widening width, 50 sma bounce, volume ramping up after a local minimum, about to make new lifetime highs, earnings per share. This one is fairly obvious. However, the general Market could sell off badly which would invalidate the setup in the short term, hence the buy stop (a very useful tactic I picked up when trying to survive trading long option position / swing).
Position did not launch thru the buy stop so I canceled it. I'm not sure what the general market is doing and it is important to speculate in the same direction as the prevailing trends in the indexes. The setup is still there but I'm not liking the general market conditions.
Subconsciously, I believe this is what is causing me to hesitate. Look at the SPY, teetering on the edge of the 50 SMA, bear flag right out of the text book, momentum coming out, and the overall picture could be counted as a B wave on the monthly chart. B waves are "phonies" according to The Wave Principle when breadth is lacking and the market strength feels fake. AAPL ruling the QQQ, for example..... I will be watching SDS if SPY breaks the 50 SMA. This would qualify as a third wave (C wave) with the required setup: lower high, momentum divergence, break thru support, etc. I could be wrong, and I've included the bull case for the SPY on the monthly. Elliot Wave rarely gives a high probability count (third wave being the only one I can think of), and this was my turning point with the theory - when I realized that in most cases, there are many possible counts and very little certainty.
Looks like another EW practitioner came to the same conclusion a couple days ago: http://www.safehaven.com/article/25100/daily-analysis
Slept in a little today to find The Market blew thru the bear flag and the C wave is on. B wave breakout on the hourly chart. My spidey senses are not picking up a decisive entry point yet because of the gap up on all the inverse etfs. I'd need a 5% stop to get in here and that tames the R multiple considerably. I'm guessing there could be a partial retrace back up.
this is a good one it clearly proves you you have no clue - your subconsciousness is getting a hiccup .. why should these divergences work? what's behind them? what's the mechanics behind it? if you ever succeed it will be mainly due to managing your position once you entered , your entries are totally random / as you hesitate , if you didn't you would be doomed to failure imo/ wish you luck though but I will not follow ..
........ and it is filling the gap, as expected. My "system" didn't clue me off to these outcomes, it was raw uninhibited subconscious intuition gained from experience and The Infinite Source. :eek: