What an awesome day! NFLX did the standard retail pop at the open, crunched hard and proceeded to put in a range for a couple hours. I retired from the flight deck to first class, and just about fell off the couch when I caught the setup for wave iii of the B wave out of the corner of my eye. I would have been all over it if I weren't waiting for a longer term setup. Speaking of... here is the total move annotated. I am waiting for the third wave inside wave 5 of the impulse. It might be a couple days.
What's up, my Elite companions! NFLX popped 5% at the open in what could only be counted as the wave i impulse, leading into the iii that I'm after. This would have been a GREAT scalp for anyone not constrained by Reg T. Now the inner question is, will it respect that moving average or will it keep plunging? The wave of MA's (all fib numbers) tends to get very narrow before a tail explodes.
Nearing the breakout phase. I was very tempted to try to pick off that higher low this morning, but I keep reminding myself that my method is called "third wave breakout", not "second wave fade". There have been about five glorious scalps in this range, over the past week, where a third wave breakout occurred on a shorter time frame and I had to hide the order bar on my screen.
Good evening, my Market Friends. I almost got faked out this morning with what I can only describe as a retail "splash-over" (false breakout). I was fumbling with the order bar, confused at why it wouldn't take a market order (something having to do with "intelligent+" routing), and then it started selling off, so I decided to sit tight. I am beginning to wonder if this fifth wave might not be as strong as I was hoping. The Market leaped today and wave iii of NFLX went limp. So it goes..... this is why trading pays so much, when you are determined to only swing at the phat pitch. I think I'm going to change my policy on entering bull flags - I think I will take the first double bottom or higher low with momentum divergence, after the ABC can be counted (circled on the chart). Flags are a bit trickier to time than triangles.
Hello, trend catcherz! While I was myopically glued to NFLX, this badboy was launching out of a thin base, right under my nose. It came up on the stochastic oversold screen the night before and was on my watch list, but I was snoozing. Check the chart. Wave 1 appears to have ended, although the strength of that fifth wave might carry into an extension. One of these days I'm going to figure out how to catch tails as they happen.
What's up, Elitists. I made a losing trade yesterday. Hopefully some of you guys will bust my ballz for this, because I disobeyed my rules. It started by me catching two modest day-tails on NFLX but instead of cashing out on the spike, I held for a long term setup that wasn't there: there was no third wave breakout on the 15 minute or hourly chart. Both trades had good favorable excursion for about 1-R on the minute chart scale, but no follow through on the longer term. Honestly I was "anticipating" a third wave, again, fading what I believed was a second wave. This is my ultimate nemesis: I am compelled, at all times, to fade corrective waves. -1.5%
It's been a while since I've updated the account P&L graph. I decided to take it all the way back to the very beginning, with all my lifetime losses. You guys will love this. Might as well get it out in the open and face up to it. Third Wave Breakout is slightly up since inception, but all the other methods I tried were losers, and it showed. This doesn't show some lucky trades in gold and silver that I considered "investments" at the time.... which basically paid for all the subscription services I bought.
..... And wouldn't you know, NFLX popped two days later in what could possibly be the first wave that I was anticipating. The stock almost looks like it's waiting for earnings. Wave iv is tracing out a declining wedge ("diagonal triangle" according to the EW textbook). This is a setup that Jeffrey Kennedy said was one of his favorites. There might be a couple bux potential for Monday. Will it launch? Will my funds settle in time? (Reg T is starting to get very old). :eek:
Greetings, fellow price watcherz. Look at what I missed out on (AFFY) while I was infatuated with a certain NFLX that didn't share my affections. Classic third wave liftoff out of a bull flag. So obvious in hindsight.... perfect range compression and MA bundle, momentum divergence, etc. One of these days I'm going to figure out how to rank my prospects a little more effectively. I get overly focused on one stock, it seems.