Fidel's declining health has been in the news quite a bit lately and I was curious as to what everyone's opinion is on what the impact of his eventual death will have on equity markets. I don't know anything about his successor but if there's any hope that we will re-open trade with Cuba in the near future, will we have a raging bull market on the news of his death?? I haven't been around lately so sorry if this topic has already been adressed.
I'm don't think Mr Castro will see the New Year. As for what effect? I dunno but I am of the opinion that the U.S should stop taking such a hard line and open things up with them... But only after shutting down that damn concentration camp GITMO!! Either charge someone with a damn crime or let them the hell go so they can go back to their children, families and loved ones!
They are not criminals. They are war combatants. The war combatants are not charged with any crimes. They should be set free but not before the war is over.
Concentration camps were used for slave labor, to attempt to completely exterminate a group of people, human guinea pigs, etc. GITMO is nothing like that....to compare them is an insult to the 6 million jews that were exterminated in concentration camps. As for the enemy combatants, when the war is over they can go home...until then.....they remain in club med!
Fidel might be dead. If not, he will be dead soon enough. He weilds power no more. The military show and Pan-American soiree they are putting on this week in Cuba is the passing of the baton to Raul Castro. Raul wants to initiate free market economic reforms akin to China. Raul is getting on in age also and is not charismatic like Fidel. Even if Raul loses power it is hard to imagine Cuba being more hostile towards capitalism in 5 years. The US stock market in unaffected by events in Cuba. Cuba does not have the backing of the Soviet Union anymore.
Cuba's resources: travel, nickel, sugar, tobacco. Few stocks would immediately benefit from a capitalism friendly regime change. Raul has been leading the country since summer, so there will not be a shock factor when Fidel is declared dead.
If my use of the term concentration camp was a poor choice of words, then I apologize. But with that said, they are not enemy combatants and this so called war on terror will never end. So do we keep them caged like animals until they die of old age with no charges ever bought against them?...Actually, the majority of those in GITMO were turned in by bounty hunters after the U.S Military let it be known they would pay cash money for anyone bought to them.. (See link below) GITMO stands for everything The United States DOESN'T stand for.. Shut it down and release those or charge any and bring them to justice. HERE: http://law.shu.edu/news/guantanamo_report_final_2_08_06.pdf
I am a conservative - Gitmo and it's ilk are NOT part of conserving the constitution, or conserving democracy or conserving the treasury.. Charge the internees and then try them fairly. The present administration should follow the Geneva Convention... since we signed the accords... Anybody who supports the outright violation of the Geneva Conventions supports war crimes and will reap what they sow... in the fullness of time I hail Patrick Henry, Thomas Jefferson, Ben Franklin but not the present fundie radical ideologues in power... cj...
Its not exactly a huge market, but i wonder what sort of trade those cigars have been making (under the table ) since fidel took over. If you lived on an island, basically supressed for half a century, would you really want your only "new" opportunities to be catering to american tourists, looking at whats happened in other areas of the carribean? Cigars, tourism, sun, rum......maybe its not so bad. Could be worse. They could be Haiti, and entirely devoid of hope.