Wittgenstein, I don't think that is going to happen, but I will tell her. Lets move on with the system, Kevin is right. I will do my best to keep this thread posted. And I believe a polite post from a gentleman, such as yourself will warm her heart. You see a Woman is like a rose. Soft to the touch, Sweet to the smell, and beautiful to behold. Her melody is as harmony to music as it is a gentle wind to a mans soul. After a mans days work, what a wonderful place to be, but with his rose. There are thorns too, and Gentleman a virtious woman in Trading with her feminine traits is a true wonder. You should cherish it. I believe a focused Woman can be a marvelous and efficient trader. So any other trading ladies out there, I would like to encourage you to keep on keepin, on. I do not know if Wifey, reads this Journal anymore, but I know she would encourage you to keep on trading in this mans industry and to support your man, if he is a trader. She meant well here, but not many people want to be where they are not wanted, man and woman alike. Have a great weekend...Witt Michael B.
I'd just like to know, Why do you only trade with $5k on this account? Surely you have built up more capital then that to make trading worth your time..?
coolweb, Do you think this is all I trade? What do you expect a Financial Statement? I have traded full time and part time for 28 years and have blown up twice in my life. This last time around is the longest that I have lasted (4Y). coolweb, I am a very conservative trader, I do not go "balls out" on any one system. I prefer to build slowly and make small adjustments to my "Total Portfolio". I am disclosing this one system and demonstrating it publicly. I am suggesting on everything that you trade to get back your original start capital and then compound. This is what works for me and if you do not agree, then I invite you to trade Cash & Carry your way. This system can be traded with any amount of money as it uses sliding scales dependent on percentages and ratio's. I might throw some more money at it, if I can get a better understanding of the swings it goes through. I am confident about this system, there is just some small adjustments I need to make. By the way if I throw money at it, it will go to cash to lower the gambling meter and to trade at a 10:1 cash to trading ratio. The current goal is 6:1. coolweb, I appreciate your confidence in the system to suggest that you might throw money at it. Obviously $2,500 profit per year is not enough and I agree. Again, Fortunately I have income from a full time job. My Options Trading account which has already provided me with the original money back in my hand (7k) and now trades with winnings only, this took only one year and it trades with 8k and building fast. I do not spend that much time with Cash and Carry when it is in carry mode...I just glance at the charts for weeks on end... I have enough money to buy a very modest studio condominium in Metro Denver, CO. and will moving in 2 weeks. So I have enough on my plate just now. This is a stepping stone to bigger things also. Give me two years and I will step up to a one bedroom condo. Exposure, Hedging and Balance are important to "brick-by-brick" growth and building. I cannot increase my Forex Portfolio until the Options PortFolio builds. My Current Goal is to have a 2:1 Ratio of Options to Forex. The "far away" goal/vision is: Cash 220 units Options 8 units Forex 6 units Futures 4 units Commodities 2 units Equities 1 unit Hedge Funds 1 unit If I had started this public Journal with 100k, then many Retail Spot Forex Traders would not read it. It must be reachable to that group of traders, and I am merely trying to help them survive. If they read these Journals in ET, perhaps there might be one thing they can "grab on to" that would save them. Whats your hurry? You have the rest of your life. Believe me I understand what it means to be productive with your time, and I am older than you coolweb. Michael B. P.S. I am an expert at starting over and this time I will not blow it? I have had much in my life and have recklessly thrown away millions of dollars. This is time for building and to realize my visions, time goes fast and I believe I will be there in just a wink of the eye... Question: Folks are you Survivng? Starting Over? vulnerable?...what mode of life are you in? Do you see the big picture or are you just gambling with your youth and wasting time?
I noticed you mentioned you've been working with this system now for a few years; coincidentally, AUD/JPY has been in a steady uptrend in that period. But from 97-01, that pair stayed in a relatively steep downtrend -- how much of a direct impact does the directional trend of the pairs have on your system? On the surface it appear that such moves would have large positive correlations with your results, but if you consistently average down/pyramid then long term direction may be secondary to short-term volatility.
illiquid, I will get to your post shortly. An exerpt from today's blog and please forgive me for mentioning you in it. But I consider the Blog my personal trading log and I wanted to catalog the growth process in Cash & Carry: I am quite happy with the progress of my trading in Retail Spot Forex. I am learning much through my self-reflection brought out by publishing in this Blog. There is a concern of mine constantly about the long term survivability of the Cash & Carry System. I believe at 30% DD, I would consider that a blow up and call it quits in Cash & Carry, rather than wait for a margin call and lose it all. Is trading Cash & Carry just a slow bleed to losing 30% and I am just trading in a favorable time? Will I be able to a make enough fast enough to be net profitable after deducting blow up? There is a Handle in ET known as Illiquid whom I believe understands this system and can offer me his insight in how to overcome a long term trend in one or all three of the pair that is progressing in a non favorable direction and give life to a a system destined to fail. Michael B.
Today's Carry (Saturday) WebSite: www.ElectricSavant.com Blog: www.ElectricSavant.com/WordPress ZipFile:
Illiquid, The geometrical progression of the "carry trades" within Cash & Carry, in pairs displaying long term trends in the "non favorable" direction, are the problem. It is a constant concern that I am battling with. To make a Holy grail out of this system would be to size the trade and the exposure to sustain infinity. Lets think about infinity and the carry of pairs that inject money daily. Could you agree that AUD/JPY and GBP/CHF could fall no lower than 0? Assuming you agree, we have just defined infinity, for two of the three pair. Shorts cannot define infinity. Could the short pair, EUR/HUF, be replaced with another long of say NZD/USD (NZD/USD is high in the interest ranks and is 50:1 leverage and not an exotic)? thus allowing all three pair to be a defined infinity where scaling could be calibrated from the highest high EVER? As each new high is realized and profit taken, the spreadsheet could define the new incremental and proportional spacing. What do you think? I would miss EUR/HUF It's my favorite pair Michael B.
Here is a spreadsheet I put together of the interest ranks. I earlier posted this and brought it forward for convienence Michael B.
Sorry, but I don't understand the concept of infinity being definable for just the "long" side when it comes to pairs of currencies -- JPY can by definition go up to infinity, right? And yet you are a short it, long aud/jpy is same as short jpy/aud no? In any case, it takes far less than infinity to blow out any trader who uses leverage in seeking above-average returns. Contrary to what you posted earler, I am not familiar with the "carry trade" portion of your method, but the phrase "geometrical progression" raises an eyebrow. To say sustaining infinity = holy grail is like saying give me enough money to continually double down, and I'll always come out ahead playing roulette. It may be true, but that doesn't turn the game into positive expectancy. The "concern [you] are battling with" is the crux of the whole matter.