Case study - breakthrough - why it happened there?

Pa(b)st Prime · Oct 12, 2008

Quote from IluvVol:

jack .....there IS NO leading indicator of price except your crystal ball. Please stick to your own threads and stop leading beginners to believe there is ANY way to predict stock/futures prices. ;-)
More...

The best post on this thread.

staffpro · Oct 12, 2008

Quote from exnergy:

Hi

I am curious of your opinions about the situation ilustrated in screenshot below.

Why at the third time there was a breakthrough.. see image for detailed description

More...

hmm interesting, you will know the answer to your question by adding a 12, 26, 46, 76 and 101 moving average to your charts in addition to your other indicators because the ones you have are not enough, then you will see a pattern.

yayt · Oct 12, 2008

Quote from staffpro:

hmm interesting, you will know the answer to your question by adding a 12, 26, 46, 76 and 101 moving average to your charts in addition to your other indicators because the ones you have are not enough, then you will see a pattern.
More...

I can't believe you give away the secret so cavalierly!

fseitun · Oct 12, 2008

Supply/demand is what rules the markets.

Why didn't price break thru support at the first try?

Because there still were enough buyers at that level.

When buyers dried up, support collapsed and we moved to a lower level.

dafong · Oct 12, 2008

i just use 5-min candles and one moving average...

jack hershey · Oct 13, 2008

Quote from exnergy:

Well this is something I can agree with. Thx for Your opinion.

So I guess - a trigger is important to enter the trade - as a trigger stochastic or something like that might works? Higher time frames confirmation is also desirable?

Leading indicators are best. The reasoning for this is that it is much safer to trader in the market where price is used to make money by having an indicator that tells you what to do before price begins to move. you could think of it as being more or less risk free. for a lot of people trading is very risky. As you say you have problems; problems can lead to risk in trading.

To make money timing is the key. It is best to always have an advance notice of what is coming up for price which is what is used to trade.

I use signals of indicators. For stock trading and for commodities trading, I use volume as stated in the PV relationship.

If I am honing my entries to enter before AM morning gaps, I need to use indications that tell me in the later afternoon the day before so I can buy before close and then on the next open I have secured the gains of the gap. To do this you have to have an integrated planning technique where you can plan for days ahead. This would involve knowing the nature of the stocks and just staying focussed on this type of high performing stock. A lot of FA is involved.

When we are in a movement - we should observe volume to predict where move may ends. But volume is something that is happening, now and after, it is lagging stuff . Isn't it?

Predicting is one of the myths many traders believe in. I do not believe in prediction for one reason: it is not necessary. As it happens, also, it does not work.

Volume is thought my many to not be important and many think as you do. Everyone can choose to think as they wish.

To trade successfully and to make a lot of money it is best the use market information and not personal beliefs. In a way, the market is always right. I chose to be rich instead of being right.

Attached is a simple one page sheet that shows how selected stocks perfom as determined by the markets. The selection of stocks to trade is mostly an FA matter. Once they are chosen, "they all look alike" is the rule of their performance.

Making money with chosen stocks is a case of obeying the markets. As you see, many people are trying to make money rather than learning from the markets. Often people speak about "beating" the market. No one has ever "beaten" the market.

Volume signals an entry will be coming up in a short time. Volume signals when an exit will be coming up in a short time. The signals for entry are different than the signals for exit. I obey these signals for the stocks I limit myself for trading. I do not trade any stocks that do not follow the signals I use for trading. Not many people share my views and most of these people do not make money the way I do. How I make money is unbelievable and astonishiing to them. they want to be right and I have never been able to understand why they want to be right at their personal expense.

excuse my english , as I am not native speaker

btw. could You explain bracket entry term?

Limit entry orders are place above and below the present price range. With both of these orders in place, you wait for the market to come to one or the other order. Once one order is taken, then you can cancel the other order. As you can see the market took the correct order for thedirection of the price. It is a safe entry too because you did not "predict" the direction of the market. You just got in and took the ride until the trend was completed. If you wish you can use limit orders to trail the stock price. As it goes up you make more money. At some point, you will find that the price stops going up. If you wish you can wait and be stopped out at a profit. For me I just prefer the higher value of price when it stops going up. I mark that value in the future and the time it will happen using a thing called Geometry. Then as time passes thestock arrives at that price. The geometry is market based and NOT based on my chosing to do the geometry MY way. I do it the market's way.

In the attachment the rules tell you when the market is telling you the exit has arrived.

Many of my suggestions and documentation have been screwed up in backtesting by those who interpret and invent different ways to apply it. this attachment has never been refuted by any such people. So far they have not been able to invent a way to screw it up. I'm not giving up on them though. But many years have gone by so far

The attached chart is used to trade full time on a 30 minute charting approach. It is for position trading to do 2 trades a week for100 trades a year. Each trade should average 10% or more on the Universe used. Usually a week can be planned for ahead of that week (like on a Sunday). A 77 page illustrated example of using this is found on the web under the heading of "Putting the Pieces Together". Thus it appears that it is a good idea to use a leading indicator of price for trading purposes.

<img src="http://img205.imageshack.us/img205/1431/20081011unclutteredmy7.png" width=800>
click to enlarge
More...

exnergy · Oct 14, 2008

thx for reply, but it is a kinda too complicated and knotty for me to day-trade futures your way

I agree with prior replies where guys described market behaviour as a key element. I use also indicators, PA, pivots, and what I am trying to predict is based on idea " when I see what others are using I could predict their actions". So also I lam taking a look at woodies CCI for reversals. It is hard to observe, but it is some kind of" PANORAMIC view" at timeframes, indicators and price levels.

I use KISS rule to manage all this stuff.

exnergy · Oct 14, 2008

Quote from staffpro:

hmm interesting, you will know the answer to your question by adding a 12, 26, 46, 76 and 101 moving average to your charts in addition to your other indicators because the ones you have are not enough, then you will see a pattern.
More...

Ok thx, but I will pass. I think I am done with moving averages for now . Besides what kind of averages you have on mind? simple, exp?

Log in or Sign up

Case study - breakthrough - why it happened there?

Pa(b)st Prime

staffpro

yayt

fseitun

dafong

jack hershey

scan0040.gif

exnergy

exnergy