Case shiller housing futures

Discussion in 'Trading' started by kxvid, Oct 21, 2008.

  1. kxvid


    The case shiller housing index measures the price of housing against a basket of other goods. This index has been around since the late 1800s and historically throughout that period housing has kept up with inflation. The price of housing has never risen faster than inflation, and has stayed remarkably flat for 100 years. If you watch the martenson link he explains this all brilliantly.

    Personally I think we will see below 100 on the case shiller index in a few years. I think the downside of going short is limited, and has decent upside. Alot of things are going up/down in this market, but the case shiller is headed straight down. If people can't get loans, how is this supposed to go up? Honestly one of the most clear cut and understandable trades I have ever seen.

    You can also bet on individual cities using futures. Now that is some seriously heavy trending people.
  2. wave


    No bottom in housing until that index gets below 118.
  3. Been around since the 1800's? Quit posting BULLSHIT. This is the kind of shit that is wrong for everyone who owns a home, whether in the US, or globally.

    Shiller is 62 years old!

    Quit panicking people and spewing crap. Martenson is a fear monger spewing DOOM and GLOOM.
  4. Each of the lines has to get below "par". :cool:
  5. Go down to zero. Burn, baby burn.
  6. wave


    The tax assessment of my house was much less than what a licensed home appraiser said it was worth at the peak of the bubble.

    Folks are in denial. We must revert to true value before any bottom occurs. Banks don't want to get burned again.

    When this occurs we will have value and buyers will step in like a fly on shit.

    Mccain's idea of writing down the mortgages to true value would ignite a bottom fast. Banks don't want to be writing notes on something that is trading at more than 2x book value especially when they can't even get a n underwriter to insure it.
  7. 1) Unfortunately, an appraiser doesn't determine what your property tax assessment will be.
    2) "Fly on shit value buying" happens at bull market peaks, not during bear markets. We'll see.
    3) Don't be completely surprised if your assessment goes up. :cool:
  8. mynd66


    haha this is kind of funny. Talk about bullshit posting... Did it ever occur to anyone that your source of information may not always be accurate? Here is a line copied from the standard and poors website which seems to be a reliable source. Hey maybe I am wrong, I didn't confirm this i just read it from a website.

    The S&P/Case-Shiller Metro Area Home Price Indices originated in the 1980s by
    Case Shiller Weiss's research principals, Karl E. Case and Robert J. Shiller. At the
    time, Case and Shiller developed the repeat sales pricing technique. This
    methodology is recognized as the most reliable means to measure housing price
    movements and is used by other home price index publishers, including the Office of
    Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO).
  9. rluser


    And 63 at the end of March