we've been grinding away day after day with swings up and down of 200+. I don't see us heading to the upside any time soon with a sustainable rally from here....as in a market breakout to the upside that triggers the beginning of a bull market rally. Every rally is a bear market rally and we have been struggling to maintain. Sooner or later it will all crack wide open. There are just way too many economic negatives out there. I like cash.
another thing i've noticed is the vast majority of people are EXPECTING this "capitulation one day sell off and everything be fine after day" and i don't think it will happen this time around, we either grind downwards painfully or we rally for no reason (and then maybe crash)
The next things to worry about: CREDIT CARD DELINQUENCIES COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE COLLAPSE AUTO INDUSTRY BAILOUTS The magnitude of this credit crisis goes well beyond anything wallstreet has ever seen. Many think this will be over in a few hours, but in reality its going to take years. I remember when they said everything was contained, fast forward to today and you can see how wrong they were. You will continue to hear more lies and see more bailouts. You can blame greed once again.
Well we will see how it all plays out. I just can't see how this market can keep treading water. It is struggling not to sink and make new lows. Sooner or later...likely sooner something is going to pop. Maybe LEH, maybe some other financial like WAMU or Wachovia, Merrill...... Then maybe we can wash out this market and form a real bottom. I just don't see the bottom here....... maybe I am wrong?.....
It would have been one of the shortest when people were calling the bottom back in July. If we dont take out the lows, it will be one of the shallowest too. Not likely.
People were calling the bottom in real estate a year ago... it's a few years off if the business cycle repeats. Fagetabboutit, the markets have not EVEN put in a bottom, we just went into a real [20% down from the top] Dow bear only recently, we just entered bear territory, not exited it.
Well my post 9/9 is coming to fruition. There is so much shit out there in this market it is AMAZING we haven't crashed yet. WM sucks so does AIG, they are next. Watch out for CITI......Meredith Whitney has been spot on and very negative about CITI. ALT foreclosures are just getting started. The consumer is struggling to keep their heads above water but they will be sucked under and this economy is going to see a big consumer led recession. http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.ht...//media2.bloomberg.com/cache/vmUV7PR4JGX8.asf