Capitulation avoided again

Discussion in 'Trading' started by detective, Sep 18, 2008.

  1. 15 minutes of real fear and that's capitulation? The media is embracing this rally as the bottom, but aside from the time under 1150 which was about 15 minutes, there wasn't much fear. 15 minutes of fame for gold is gone already. Program driven buying when the VIX hit a high level and most sellers were smart enough to get the hell out of the way. The influence of hedge funds is apparent, the VIX trade is in their fund cookbook. Among many hedge funds, it can be argued that there is less fear of buying when the VIX is high than when its low. They are the ones gunning the futures higher when they see their signal, so the lows don't last long.

    After all the bailouts and Fed and Treasury manuevers, you are left with a landscape devoid of sound capital. Everything is done to pump more dollars into the system and keep it there.

    Now the RTC and a 80 point intraday range means we've got a bottom? Maybe for a couple weeks, but then we'll grind lower again because stocks just aren't cheap enough. I would love to be a buyer of stocks when they are true values, but stocks still aren't cheap like they were in the early 80s or early 90s. Other than Asia, which will come out of this recession flying, I don't see true equity value out there.