Capex spending ...a slow down and nvda drops below 100!

Discussion in 'Trading' started by S2007S, Jan 29, 2025.

  1. mervyn

    mervyn

  2. SunTrader

    SunTrader

    DS was the catalyst to push NVDA and others over the valuation cliff.
     
    #12     Jan 29, 2025
  3. s trader

    s trader

    I really like ChatGPT, it's like my new best friend. Yesterday i tried out DeepSeek and found another best friend. This is the question i asked the the answer i got.

    Can increase in daily volumes of large stocks such as Nvidia, Tesla, Microsoft, Meta, Google also cause an increase in volume of E-mini ES ?

    Yes, an increase in the daily trading volumes of large-cap stocks like Nvidia, Tesla, Microsoft, Meta, and Google (often referred to as the "Magnificent Seven" or other prominent tech giants) can contribute to an increase in the volume of the E-mini S&P 500 (ES) futures contract. Here's why and how this relationship works:

    1. Correlation Between Large-Cap Stocks and the S&P 500

    • The S&P 500 index is market-cap-weighted, meaning the largest companies (like the ones you mentioned) have a significant influence on the index's movements.
    • When these large-cap stocks experience high trading volume, it often indicates heightened interest or activity in the broader market, which can spill over into the ES futures as traders hedge or speculate on the index.
    2. Increased Volatility and Hedging Activity

    • Large moves in high-profile stocks like Nvidia or Tesla can create volatility in the S&P 500 index itself, as these stocks carry substantial weight in the index.
    • Institutional investors and traders may increase their activity in the ES futures to hedge their exposure to these large-cap stocks or to take advantage of the volatility.
    3. Market Sentiment and Momentum

    • When big tech stocks (e.g., Microsoft, Meta, Google) see a surge in volume, it often reflects broader market sentiment, such as risk-on or risk-off behavior.
    • This sentiment can drive increased trading in the ES futures as traders look to capitalize on or protect against broader market movements.
    4. News and Events

    • Earnings reports, product launches, or macroeconomic news affecting these large-cap stocks can lead to spikes in their trading volumes.
    • Such events often have a ripple effect, increasing volume and volatility in the ES futures as traders adjust their positions in anticipation of broader market impacts.
    5. Algorithmic and Program Trading

    • Many algorithmic trading strategies are designed to trade both individual stocks and index futures simultaneously.
    • When large-cap stocks see increased volume, algorithms may trigger corresponding trades in the ES futures to maintain balanced portfolios or exploit arbitrage opportunities, further boosting ES volume.
    6. Retail and Institutional Participation

    • Retail traders often follow the momentum of popular stocks like Tesla or Nvidia. When these stocks are active, retail traders may also increase their participation in the ES futures to gain exposure to the broader market.
    • Institutional traders, who often trade both individual stocks and index futures, may ramp up their ES activity to manage risk or express broader market views.
    Practical Example:

    • If Nvidia releases a strong earnings report and its stock surges on high volume, traders may anticipate a positive impact on the S&P 500 index due to Nvidia's weight in the index.
    • This anticipation can lead to increased buying activity in the ES futures, driving up its volume as well.
    Key Considerations:

    • While there is often a correlation, the relationship isn't always direct or proportional. Other factors, such as macroeconomic news or geopolitical events, can also influence ES volume independently of individual stock activity.
    • The ES futures market is highly liquid and influenced by a wide range of factors, so while large-cap stock volume can contribute to ES volume, it is just one of many drivers.
    In summary, increased daily volumes in large-cap stocks like Nvidia, Tesla, Microsoft, Meta, and Google can indeed lead to higher volume in the E-mini S&P 500 (ES) futures, as these stocks are key components of the S&P 500 index and their activity often reflects or drives broader market trends.
     
    #13     Jan 29, 2025
  4. Sekiyo

    Sekiyo





     
    Last edited: Jan 29, 2025
    #14     Jan 29, 2025
  5. Sekiyo

    Sekiyo



    Beggars
     
    #15     Jan 30, 2025
  6. SunTrader

    SunTrader

    Should have known a $1 mil apiece in Donny's pocket ain't gonna cut it.
     
    #16     Jan 30, 2025
  7. nitrene

    nitrene

    Another great call by the self anointed Boy Plunger. I guess you'll right one day just like a broken clock. You've been bearish since like what $300 pre-split.

    At least Jesse Livermore, the original Boy Plunger, was successful at shorting.
     
    #17     Jan 30, 2025
  8. Sekiyo

    Sekiyo

    The boy plunger wouldn't short at all time high.
    He would wait for a lower low + lower high.
     
    #18     Jan 30, 2025
  9. NVDA will certainly become re-priced much much lower..orderly, over months. Open AI will certainly postpone its IPO (thank goodness it wasnt already Public). Microsoft will certainly become re-priced a decent bit lower..orderly, over months. (the regards on WSB are seething and in total disarray).

    There will be damage control ..in the form of ''supposed'' continued huge spending toward AI, Chips, Data Centers.

    However..the rest of the market may sustain and still see gains. War spending will continue and even get larger. I say War spending in the form of Palantir type AI, Archer type drones, Rocket Labs type hypersonic missile development, military use robotics, ect. We have a Brave New World of High Tech military just getting started.

    AI will become MUCH cheaper to obtain..which will be a huge positive for many many companies.

    AI may become cheap enough to enter and disrupt Biotech with much better quicker advances this year.

    Self driving may see overall success and very cost effectiveness due to much cheaper AI this year (we will see huge news from Tesla on this)

    LEO satellites will be completed in both satellite broadband and satellite direct to cellular .. with several competing against Elon this year (we will see full completion and cost effective pricing from StarLink on this)

    And finally..many more great advancements from china will be discovered and banned..thus allowing our own monopolies to become even more richer and allowing even higher costs to be pushed onto the consumer

    could be much worse:
    Imagine what would become of apple if Huawei wasnt banned
    Imagine what would become of Tesla..if Chinese EVs werent banned
    TikTok will be forced to sell to a monopoly Microsoft

    This whole charade could have become unwound much sooner. But..the massive bubble in AI created under Biden and the timing here of DeepSeek popping this AI bubble in Trump's 3rd week in office...
     
    Last edited: Jan 30, 2025
    #19     Jan 30, 2025
  10. Sekiyo

    Sekiyo

     
    #20     Jan 30, 2025