Discussion in 'Economics' started by Roman Candle, Aug 3, 2009.
The only way this bill will get any traction is for crude to really move up.
It will... drastically, unless this depression gets a lot worse.
China has brought into the 21st century about 300 million of their population within the past decade or two. And by 2025, they plan on bringing on another 290 million - almost the same population as the US today. Their coal and cement usage is voracious. Need oil to move that stuff.
And I'm not even bringing up India's growth numbers.
Remember the National Geographic images of Chinese intersections with over 100 bicyclists commuting? Well, they're driving now.
So unless these emerging countries don't emerge from this depression, and the same with us, Oil will start getting very expensive. Some estimate north of $300 a barrell. And should it reach that, ironically, the depression will once again grip the globe.
Welcome to Peak Oil.
(By the way, the recent natural gas finds in the US are pretty astounding) Nonetheless, oil is used to lubricate every type of machine in the world, it's in asphalt roads and roof shingles, food grade petroleum polishes our food, petrochemicals in cosmetics, fertilizers, plastics, rubber tires, etc... I could go on and on. Oil is why we live how we do. Oil is why the world's population went parabolic after WWII.
Life will be very different in about ten years.
Shouldn't be long now with the current dollar trend...
Warning: Oil supplies are running out fast
Catastrophic shortfalls threaten economic recovery, says world's top energy economist
I think for Cap and Trade to be taken seriously, we need higher temperatures.
We have lower temperatures for the last 10 years. Instead of Cap and Trade, maybe we should worry what is going on with falling tempertures. That is what is happening now.
Ever try growing 10,000 acres of wheat in a greenhouse? Think about it. Can you guarantee it will work, at cost specified?
You DO realize that the current "Cap & Trade" legislation that already passed the House is totally "gutted" and that 85% of the carbon permits are not being auctioned off, but actually given away for FREE by the Government; which essentially defeats the whole purpose of the policy?
Moreover, Coal is exempt till 2025 and Agri-Business which accounts for 25% of carbon emission is totally exempt.
You do realize this, right?
Alot of things can happen overnight, and even in the last minute before it is brought to a vote on the senate floor. You know this right? Things get added and removed while everyone is asleep.
You have no idea what you are talking about.
If anything, the Senate would "water-down" this legislation even more because the dissenting voices will only gain prominence in the Senate, where each state has equal representation. Did you ever think of that?
It barely passed the House, as is.
(219 vs 211).
But hey, thanks for checking in.
My family has been in politics since 1980, Phil Gramm bought land from my family back in the late 70s early eighties when he was a professor. We have been in Texas politics for 40 years.
I been to so many fund raisers over the years, and met some of the most powerful men in the country.
And yet you have no idea what you are talking about as it relates to "Cap & Trade".
And for what it's worth, we can all "thank" Phil Gramm for spearheading the "Commodity Futures Modernization Act of 2000" which gave rise to Enron and their ability to "game" the California power grid during the last Recession, not too mention lead to WTI crude oil trading overseas via ICE in Dubai and London without any position limits or CFTC regulation whatsoever . . . not too mention the birth of Credit Default Swaps with no regulation (or clearing house) whatsoever.
Yeah, Phil Gramm has been a great Statesman for the United States of America.
Separate names with a comma.