Cant wait till the bond market finally breaks out

Discussion in 'Financial Futures' started by Urkel, Nov 15, 2005.

  1. Urkel


    Last five trading days the bonds(10 & 30yr) have been trading the same prices either rallying roughly a point then finishing near the top or selling off a point then closing near that point, frankly i am getting tired of this

    . When will something finally give? I havent been losing money but this is getting wierd to me. Is there that much consolidation in this market that it cant pick a direction? are there that many spreaders keeping things in tact? Just had to vent my frustration a little.
  2. The story starts with the market going in a narrow trading range with decreasing volume a week before the 11/01 FMOC meeting. The meeting didn't provide the words of reassurance needed to start a rally so prices dipped and bottomed out three days later when the October employment report provided the last opportunity for bears to play their remaining cards. Since then, prices have been creeping up slowly inside a downward corridor that will be broken tomorrow if prices trade slightly above today’s close.

    The upper limit of that corridor is defined by the <b>last two highs</b> before the consolidation period that took place before the FOMC meeting, so if you extend the line above the 9/22 and 10/21 highs, you will notice that the same line also connects today’s high.

    To put it simply, the bond market will be on fire once 30 Yr Bond prices return this week above 112. An important element that adds to this possibility is that the Dow's wings melted today at 10 points below a level of resistance that was not meant to be reached.
  3. fader


    looking at the end of the year for the last three years - seems to be range bound into jan/feb timeframe - is that "seasonal" ?
  4. Urkel


    Thanks Steve for providing some insight. This absolutely makes sense, and is helping me get more of a sense of what is going on.
  5. i am sick and tired of these big boys pretending to try to break out of ranges by pushing it through by two ticks, getting everyone thinking breakout and then flipping it back into the range......its seriously annoying. I like the call about consolidatoin nov-jan, you can really see itthe past 3 years. Hopefully this year it will break that tendency.
  6. Urkel