Bearish gold case No. 1: The debt ceiling is not raised and enough cuts are made to avert a default. Unlikely Bearish gold case No. 2: The debt ceiling is raised and the federal budget is balanced. Unlikely Bulllish Case No. 1: The debt ceiling is not raised and the U.S. defaults on Treasury debt. Unlikely Bullish Gold Case No. 2: The debt ceiling is raised and there are symbolic cuts in spending. This scenario is by far the most likely outcome of the debt talks in Washington; they will raise the debt ceiling and make spending cuts which sound substantial, but which only mange to slow the accumulation of new debt. .... Clearly, this is bullish for precious metals. It means more of the same -- more spending, more debt, and necessarily more money-printing. ,,,, Despite gold once again hitting new highs, I can only recommend my readers continue to keep a healthy portion of their portfolio in precious metals. Given the sad realities of the US fiscal and monetary situation, it's prudent to assume that nothing will be solved by August 2. http://www.thestreet.com/story/11203732/3/bullish-bearish-gold-scenarios-for-default.html
Originally posted Feb 16, 2011. When DOW/S&P500 correction gathers momentum I expect: UP ~ USD, various USDXXX currencies, VIX Index DOWN ~ EURUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, GOLD/SILVER, Base metals like COPPER etc, CRUDE OIL. stockmarket618.wordpress.com
Schiff does not look at Gold via this formula: Gold_Price= Inflation_Fear + Additional_Stuff + Generic_Fear He fails to mention that "Generic_Fear" (similar to fear we see in VIX) may have been overblown in the last 2 weeks and could drag Gold down short-term after the deal is in. Maybe Schiff only looks long term. Is he supposed to be any good? i see many of his articles on the web.
what do you guys think about my formula? GLD +3% today. Has Gold become pure fear play, "General_Fear"?
1. When you first coined the ben's line, that was the thought that came to mind. Never go to write about it. 2. Why did you not call the bottom in your post? You think it would break? Would the rest of this week see a rally? I think the latter.
last Friday SPY 130 Aug 05 straddle was priced 1.88+2.23 = $4.11 SPY 129.55 My hypothesis at that time was that Long straddle was a loser. Right now SPY 125.10 is around where it should be on Friday Aug 05 based on that straddle. As of today the straddle turned out to be a winner but may still become a loser by Friday (if the hypothesis is correct). Yes, i think we will bounce into Friday close (flat is the worst case, unless there is a nuclear war)