Candlestick probability

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by Amatrue, Jan 8, 2020.

  1. Turveyd

    Turveyd

    So totally pointless then ??

    Right find chart, highlight every setup, then highlight profit from setup or loss if it failed, then maybe you'll get the idea.
     
    #51     Jan 15, 2020
    dtrader98 likes this.
  2. Worse than pointless... it's very misleading. Like showing a single outcome of a coin toss equaled heads, as if that implies something. Some of you TA guys really have to get out of the dark ages.

    To add to that.
    Find some way to quantify that setup, so that you can somehow distinguish a particular setup from a sea of others. Once you feel confident you've done that, define some future outcome interval. Then start to tabulate statistics of outcome vs input pattern. Like if I get patterns similar to the input pattern I've defined, what can I expect the outcome to be like, before I make a bet on that.
     
    #52     Jan 15, 2020
    beginner66 and murray t turtle like this.
  3. easymon1

    easymon1

    mr turveyd,
    yeah that's right
     
    #53     Jan 15, 2020
  4. easymon1

    easymon1

    mr dtrader98,
    do you see an outcome shown there?
    there is no outcome shown there.
    that's just the setup, not where the trade unfolded to.
     
    #54     Jan 15, 2020
  5. Turveyd

    Turveyd

    English Language issue here ?? where are you from EasyMon1??
     
    #55     Jan 15, 2020
  6. vanv0029

    vanv0029

    It eliminates HFT advantage to traders with more money than
    other traders so they can buy faster access. It also
    ends the corrupting influence on exchanges from being able
    to sell unfairness. I think there is concensus among
    academic. Here is a reference to a commonly cited paper.

    Quarterly Journal of Economics, Volume 130, Issue 4, November 2015, Pages 1547–1621, https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjv027
     
    #56     Jan 16, 2020
  7. easymon1

    easymon1

    deletethis.png
    your mileage may vary
     
    Last edited: Jan 16, 2020
    #57     Jan 16, 2020
  8. easymon1

    easymon1

    thx vanv0029 for the article. "...which leads to obvious mechanical arbitrage opportunities" is an attention-getter. To fade the cost of a $300,000,000.00 project, one among many, requires some heavy-duty revenue. That equates to a few lobbyists salted strategically about. Any changes since 2015?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flash_Boys Publication date March 31, 2014
    Flash Boys starts out describing a $300 million project from Spread Networks - the construction of an 827-mile (1,331 km) cable that cuts straight through mountains and rivers from Chicago to New Jersey - with the sole goal of reducing the transmission time for data from 17 to 13 milliseconds.[12]
     
    Last edited: Jan 16, 2020
    #58     Jan 16, 2020
  9. easymon1

    easymon1

  10. %%
    Don't really have to explain a trend to profit from it. Good earnings or bad earnings helps explain a lot.………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………...NOT a prediction. And one REALTOR laughed + said ''people will buy anything '' :D:D,,:caution::cool::cool::cool::cool::cool::cool::cool::cool:LOL
     
    #60     Jan 18, 2020
    nooby_mcnoob likes this.