Quote from Random.Capital: Nobody knows what the max production is, Incorrect assumption #1. It is really not that hard to project, as the article actually did , if you bothered to read it. There are certain factors easily predictable that limits production, thus overall production can be forecasted. oil sands, shale oil, etc, are littered all over this planet. When the source is that distributed, max production at any given point becomes less relevant. Incorrect assumption #2. First, I was talking about the Canadian tar sand so its existence somewhere else is irrelevant to the topic. Second, it is not littered all over the planet, we know about a couple of big deposits, but the economical/enviromental limits apply to them too. Third, the speed of production DOES apply to ALL OF THEM.... With oil in the ground it is rather simple to run up production (except deepwater drilling) but with tar sand mining, it takes decades, and I haven't even bitched about the incredibly low EROI.... P.S.: It helps if you educate yourself on the issue, that's why I provided the article...
Pekelo: With all due respect (even though you show none) anybody claiming to understand how good oil sand/shale tech can get is kidding themselves. There has been an extremely limited amount of time when the industry has been simultaneously awash in "windfall" profits AND needing the supply from such a (previously) dubious source. There is simply no telling how far the combination of greed and necessity would take things. If crude can get back over $100, we'll find out. Until then, cheers.
Well, basicly that was the article about. If the current recession (demand destruction) lasts let's say 5 more years that could mean relative low oil prices thus no more extra investment in the tar sand business, 5 years wasted on inventions too. But again, there are certain factors that no technological invention can improve, so the bottomline is, tar sands/ oil shale are not the solution only temporary substitutes for our energy needs.
I read an article about potentially using small nuclear reactors at tar sands. Seems the business plan revolved around supplying power to tars-sands. Even though it may be a pipe dream it does show technological factors can improve limiting factors. It is unlikely to be feasible at low prices but at higher prices there is a chance innovations will pop up to make cumbersome processes more efficient.
I assume when the temperature is -20 degree they stop production/mining, although that would indicate that during the winter they have to suspend operations several times...
Gov't MUST boost development of good useful technologies. Gov't boosted electrical illumination by promoting the World Fair (in Chicago if I'm right) with 200,000 light bulbs, which Tesla won over Edison.
-20? lol!! They'd be idle half the winter. Open pit diamond mines and drill rigs in the far north run at -50. Kids don't even go indoors for recess at -20.