canadian housing data-- are they serious?

Discussion in 'Data Sets and Feeds' started by marketsurfer, Nov 8, 2008.

  1. Interestingly, the canadian housing starts have been increasing month to month. Are they going to drop hard and fast, damagingn the CAD even more. knocking it into oblivion? any thoughts?

    The Event

    At 8:15 A.M. EST on Monday, November 10th the Canada Mortgage and Housing Commission (CMHC) releases its monthly new house starts. Simply put, this is the new residential construction started during the previous month.


    The figure is monthly data but it is presented in a yearly format, meaning it is the figure times twelve. An upward trending series of months is thought to reflect a robust and growing economy, as new home owners are major buyers of goods and services which stimulate growth. Downward trending monthly numbers indicate potential future retraction and slowing in the economy. In addition, beating analyst's estimates is considered positive; lagging the estimates is a negative sign leading to the expected potential short term reaction in the USD/CAD pair.

    Trader Take

    The USD/CAD pair was on massive uptrend from July until October 26th where it peaked just below the twin zero resistance level of 1.3000. It has since dropped off this lofty level and is currently finding resistance again at the twin zero figure of 1.2000, after bouncing from the 1.1500 on November 5th. Interesting, housing starts have been uptrending since August, even beating analyst's estimates in September and October. October's figure was 218k crushing the estimated number of 207k. This month economists are predicting a drop to 205k. Over the last several months, analysts have been on the low side projecting this figure. Let's see if this trend continues and the Canadian economy continues to surprise!

    Best wishes!
  2. how is housing start compare to forex oblivion?

    By any measures Canadian economy 10 times stronger than US
    fiscal policy is still sound, no deficits at least for now
    no huge military spending
    still a lot of resources
    interest rates double on what is in US

    what pressures C$ are just global margin calls

    as we could see any stock market stabilization will put tremendous pressure on US$ and slow housing starts in Canada will not help it
  3. achilles28


    Canadian Banks are better hedged then US.

    But our economy is resource-extraction heavy.

    Commodity "deflation" doesn't help.
  4. You guys are dense.

    Surf posted that link to get "hits" to his link ( he is the author of the article )

    USD/CAD pair has absolutely no correlation to Canadian housing starts.

    It's a BS article.

    Slow day for you surf? :D