Let's outline the reality. Canada primarily exports natural resources to the U.S. such as lumber, oil, and minerals. Canada primarily imports finished products from the U.S. These finished products are generally also available to be imported from other countries such as China, Japan, and European nations. If Trump places high cross-the-board tariffs on natural resource imports from Canada, this will greatly impact the U.S. economy -- most likely cripple some U.S. sectors. When Canada retaliates by placing mirror high tariffs on imports from the U.S.; Canada can simply import these finished products from other countries instead of the U.S. while diverting their natural resource exports to other nations who need them (i.e. China). The impact of high tariffs on the two economies, U.S. and Canada, are not equal. They are lopsided with the U.S. facing much worse economic consequences if high cross-the-board tariffs are put in place.
Trump is clueless he wanted to put a 25% tariff on Cdn heavy Oil that is refined in the US and sold at a huge profit. Paper today said US cities in trouble include Detroit and San Antonio. In any event we learned from 2009-2019 on this site that 'traders' are often the least informed about how the economy works than most.
Trump is now pretending to make progress on talks with Canada so he can weasel out of all his talk tough about tariffs at some point in the near future. His plan for Canada to relent to his demands has failed miserably, causing Canada to rally behind a strong anti-Trump position. If he ignores all the chaos it will fall onto others in the US and they'll have to figure out how to fix the mess he created.
I don't think many Americans understand the resolve of Canadians to oppose Trump on every level. However, the layoffs and inflation needs to hit hard before the Trump supporters understand how this all works. Car prices and availability, potash, electricity, and metals are hot spots. Heavy Oil is a big card we can play if things get messy. Of note this week was US Oil inventories went negative for the first time in a while ( world wide inventories had been at generational lows already ). Oil prices could jump, much like Copper prices already did. Canada will take a hit short term for sure. But the resolve of our people far exceeds the willingness of Americans to do the same. Basically Trump promised them a lot of things with the trade war that break the normal laws of economics. Stock markets hate his policies, and are only holding up because they assume even Trump can't possibly follow though on this insanity longer then a few months.
Trump preached on the campaign trail that the Biden Administration should not be using the U.S. Oil inventories to lower oil prices because he has a better plan to lower it without using U.S. Oil inventories. Now that Trump is in office and he played that tariff card with Canada and the rest of the world...he had no choice to use the U.S. Oil inventories to lower prices at the gas pump because he made a promise to lower prices on Day One. What has happen recently to get gas prices to drop to current levels while Trump is bragging he's kept his promise? Here's a more detailed breakdown: Unexpected Decline: U.S. crude oil inventories tumbled by 3.3 million barrels, despite expectations of a rise, according to a Wall Street Journal survey of analysts. Below Average: At 433.6 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories were about 5% below the five-year average for this time of year. Other Inventories: Gasoline inventories also fell by 1.4 million barrels, but remain 2% above the five-year average. Distillate fuel inventories dipped by 0.4 million barrels and are about 7% below the five-year average. Market Reaction: Oil prices rose on Wednesday, buoyed by the news of the inventory draw and concerns about tighter global supply. https://www.theglobeandmail.com/inv...-rise-as-trump-takes-aim-at-venezuelan-crude/ https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-...Decline-in-Crude-and-Product-Inventories.html Trump does not want Americans to know about the above as if it's an economic secret about a pending problem. His tariff game has caused a tighter global supply resulting in the market pricing in future supply disruptions. I'm willing to bet they're talking about it in Signal Group Chat with no journalists invited to the chat. https://taxfoundation.org/research/all/federal/trump-tariffs-trade-war/ https://discoveryalert.com.au/news-article/oil-price-rally-trump-tariffs-2025/ This is a forum for traders and anyone ignoring the negative impact of Trump's tariffs while trading Brent Oil or WTI Oil futures should have their head examined. Simply, Trump will soon need Oil from somewhere/from somebody and its going to be difficulty for him to get it with his tariffs on countries all over the world smarting up about the game he's playing. Further, America will not be willing to suffer at the gas pumps and the country will become more divided/angry, and more questioning Trump's goal to buy or take Greenland and Canada by military force if necessary for their resources under the facade of "economic security" and "territory security" against Russia/China's expansion goals... Although today Vice President Vance said the latter is not going to happen during his one day visit to a military outpost in Greenland with the signal gate National security adviser Mike Waltz in toll with him. Therefore, when it comes to Oil inventories...it's not only about Canada...it's about China, Europe and other countries who are now figuring out they hold the cards when they come together to fight Trump's tariffs by using retaliatory tariffs at a time when U.S. oil inventories are declining when Americans are divided. Here at Elitetrader.com is a micro example of the American division...constant threads and attacks between Republican and Democrat members...trolling each other. In contrast, less division here at the forum between Canadian Conservatives, Liberals, Separatists, and other Canadian political parties. Simply, more unity in Canada and that unity implies they'll work together to endure tougher times from a tariff war while Americans will not be willing to do it because they're not unified with Trump in his tariff war against the world. Thus, as the tariff war heats up even more...impacting consumers and the financial markets... We'll see more arguments here at the forum between Republican and Democrat members. wrbtrader
Call me cynical, Trump will probably use oil shortages he made to sell Teslas and his cult will call it a master stroke.
My daughter bought and flipped a chain of restaurants recently, the new owners from Asia are paying her a nice retainer to keep things on an even keel for a while. We were just talking about offering a Canada source friendly menu for Amercians who choose Canadian I say French's is OK as though owned by McCormack their ketchup is made in Canada. Plus French's Worcestershire sauce is the best. Could cause a riot...
Tesla sales are going to plummet in many countries like Canada. Not a political statement a reality almost nobody here wants to be associated with Tesla anymore. Oil shortages are going to occur regardless of Trump because of fundamentals. There is a lot of bs out there about what Oil prices will do, drill baby drill, but bottom line is for profit Oil companies have no sane reason to fund new projects or drill pricier locations.
https://www.comicsands.com/brooklyn...aem_gkmAeoFj9Gc9fts8MesGgQ#Echobox=1743022776 Brooklyn Cybertruck Goes Viral After Owner Gets Fact-Checked By Real-Life Community Note The owner of a Tesla Cybertruck in Brooklyn attempted to justify their purchase of the vehicle amid widespread backlash against the company's CEO, Elon Musk—and was fact-checked with a "community note" someone stuck on their car.
I will very likely put a pre-order on one of these. Telo trucks by the real founders of Tesla. It's about perfect for my land manager to use and now comes with a solar panel charging option, that goes over the roof and bed.