My friend has been looking at 15 min charts on the YM. And just by feel he buys, shorts, sells and buys to cover. He knows nothing about trendlines, breakouts, momentum, etc. He trades on just how he feels and I've seen it. When I saw him he won 17 out of 23 trades, with about 10 dow points on his average winning trades, and 10 dow points per losing trade. Is it possible for someone to just trade on feel and be profitable?
that's the only way i can make money. every time i tried to trade by thought i got crashed...infact i consider thought trading the equivalent of gambling...u know, i "think" it may go higher here, let's buy, and bang position goes against u in no time.
how do you distinguish your thoughts from your feelings??? my thoughts and feelings are the same, everyone else says I don't have feelings, maybe that is the case???!!!!!!!!
it's kinda realization inside me...a particular telling feel i get when i see a pattern or a movement screaming at me to get in. heart pumps and i feel a sort of urge, pleasurable i may add...and if that feel begins to change when i am in the trade and i get uncomfortable, i get out. when i feel nothing i dont trade, simple as that.
************************** Yes it is possible. But not every day constantly in my opinion. I have been doing it for years and would be ecstatic if I could do it all the time. Problem is that it is not all that easy being extremely discretionary all the time . "Catching the wave" and just going along for the ride is still a great feeling even if from the outside looking in it seems as if you were just lucky. The old saying " I'd rather be lucky than smart" will always apply in my eyes. I remember one of the Market Wizards traders giving some analogy long ago that I thought rang true and always will. I think he equated surfing to trading and he presented a similar analogy. Something along the lines of: You don't have to know everything about resonance, fluid dynamics, or the physics of tides to be able to catch the wave. You just have to be in the right place at the right time and be prepared to act. With that being said another comes to mind: Prepare dont predict. Chance favors the prepared mind. I do feel though that when you can't just jump along for the ride you need something to fall back on. This is when I try to get a short term "feel" from technicals whilst still maintaing a med term view based on fundamentals. The recent carry trade unwinding in the GBP/JPY and other JPY related crosses this past week has been a perfect case in point. Looking at some short term techs ( Fibs, DMI, important support / resistance levels , etc ) and knowing enough about what has been going on fundamentally was enough to capitalize on the recent moves. Picking and choosing entry levels discretionally has worked great ( if staying with the short to med term trend haha.) In the end though, I used to laugh at some of the traders around me that would have sooo many lines on their charts it seemed as if they were looking through a jail-cell. All their MBA educations and detailed analysis did little during the heat of the moment and they would freeze like a deer in the headlights. We would jokingly comment that they had a case of "analysis paralysis".
there are 3 principles of trading that are immutable (I hope that is the correct word - a trend will more likely continue than reverse - trends end in climax (volume on big move) - momentum precedes price - price alternates between range and contraction I think your friend is watching price for range expansion and contraction (I borrowed this from Linda Bradshaw raschke I think, can;t remember clearly). Your friend is trading off the range expanding (exit) and contraction (entry) Just my guess and IMHO http://lauristonletter.blogspot.com/