+++1 This is most of the ET here did when they posted their chart, after event shit I try to cut and paste one of the SP history and ask those PA expat to tell me what is the next move .. you know what, their accuracy to guess it right is not any better than flipping a coin with 50% probability. And then, you got some those expat to tell you that they only need 40-50% time to be right because they are looking for risk/reward of 1/2 or 1/3, and you guess what ? You can't find any 40-50% win rate positions (in long term) with risk/reward = 1/2 or 1/3. This is just pure Math, but I don't think most of the ET here understand. If the things is so easy, all the big firms like GS will keep on printing $$ and no need to spend hundred of millions by hiring thousand of PhDs to "create" edge for them like HFT, algo trading, program broker platform and etc.
simple hns ,you could sit short and wait for it to hit that neckline,makes you wonder how the deep pockets are playing this,timing is the difference between heat and a great entry
Ammo, No disrespect, I believe you to be one of the better guys in this place, but if it was that simple why do I see you [constantly] adding to your shorts due to bad timing? FoN
weekly it bounces from point to point,we stopped at the arrow and the next target up or down is either of those two nearest points,just keep doing this and whittle down the timeframe,ride the direction it takes to the point
the timing is everything fon,between that chart and the enter key ,is all the psychology and acct size,you need to ,over time get less of one and more of the other and hopefully when .if any of us improve year in,year out,there won't be anything in between that chart and the enter key
I don't think you need to predict what will happen, you need to know how to react when something does happen. Once the market has moved down to a point where I have a bias to get long on a confirmed price signal (duh, the only way to "buy low" is to buy after a decline, so it's not rocket science to know you want to get long after the market's gone down), I don't predict that the price signal will happen at a specific time and price, I only know that it will happen at some point. How do I know that? Because if it doesn't happen, the market will eventually have to go to 0 and since we know that won't happen, eventually the market has to reverse. Once it does, I enter a long trade. The recent market action has been a perfect example of nothing happening to get me in on the long side, as I haven't had a signal to go long in a week. After my last long signal, did I predict that it would take so long for me to get another long signal? No, I'm just waiting to react to one. Frankly, whatever happens in between signals is of little interest to me because in between signals, I'm out of the market. Sometimes the market will be in a state of "limbo", where the next move could get me either long or short. Do I predict which one will actually happen? No, I just wait for the signal, either way. Same thing with managing the trade once I'm in. I don't predict that price will reach a certain point, I react to what price does, move my stops and make exits accordingly. At no point am I predicting anything other than that the set-up will lead to a profitable trade X% of the time over time. That's how you trade, not this "Hey, the market's definitely going up, I'm getting long" or "The market's ready to crash, get short now before the big one" stuff. It's definitely not easy, but it's also not impossible.
Ammo, What about the areas of low volume (Small bars) on your volume profile, arent they areas of magnetic value as well? FoN